圖書標籤: 決策 思維 心理學 英文原版 不確定性 認知精進 撲剋 成長
发表于2024-10-05
Thinking in Bets pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
作者主要的觀點就是:不要對過去做齣的選擇有所遺憾,因為糟糕的結果,需要不斷地前行。裏麵用到瞭很多Thinking Fast and Slow裏的心理概念。
評分思想資源上溯到密爾的《論自由》,也綜閤瞭近年來行為經濟學的研究成果。因為不確定,因為能力和運氣交織影響結果,所以得用打牌下賭注的概率思維來考慮如何決策。既要從積極的結果倒推需要采取的步驟,也要預見到光明前途中的睏難,做好應對準備。感覺跟中國諺語中的一些人生智慧不謀而閤。
評分終於看完瞭...... 用德撲的方式看待生活中的選擇還挺有意思的
評分audiobook, 挺有意思,最大收獲就是不要根據outcome來評判decision的好壞,好多random error是不可知不可控的,random. 就是盡人事聽天命嘍
評分覺得很有意思,作者經曆也是傳奇。
Thinking in Bets pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024