圖書標籤: 社會學 金融 思維 哲學 Finance 風險管理 英文原版 經濟
发表于2025-02-16
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
my only regret is to not have read years ago....idiosyncratically brilliant!
評分Idea好,但行文形散.In Extremistan world,vol不可靠因BS exist and their rarity lowers vol.應對負麵BS:keep a diary to prevent burnout from 2nd guessing of past actions,defensive redundancies,keep it small,use barbell.正麵BS:be an aggregate BS hunter (VC, publisher),max serendipity, invest in preparedness not predictability,trade duration for intensity in workout (?!)
評分重溫男神的經典之作,雖然提瞭很多次卡尼曼和其他學者在風險管理方麵的理論,但“黑天鵝”應該是提醒大傢注意到小概率不可預測事件帶來的風險的代名詞,也解釋瞭統計學和計量經濟學裏經常齣現的各種假定其實在現實生活中沒有任何行為意義。為此,唯一能做的就是冗餘吧。
評分重溫男神的經典之作,雖然提瞭很多次卡尼曼和其他學者在風險管理方麵的理論,但“黑天鵝”應該是提醒大傢注意到小概率不可預測事件帶來的風險的代名詞,也解釋瞭統計學和計量經濟學裏經常齣現的各種假定其實在現實生活中沒有任何行為意義。為此,唯一能做的就是冗餘吧。
評分現在迴想起來,這本書給我的最大收獲竟然是愛上瞭Horowiz與Rachmaninov,(⑉°з°)-♡ 哈哈哈????
作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...
評分作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...
評分这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...
評分这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...
評分这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025