The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載 2025

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Random House Trade Paperbacks

2010-5-11

480

USD 17.00

Paperback

9780812973815

圖書標籤: 社會學金融思維哲學 Finance 風險管理英文原版經濟

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发表于2025-02-08

The Black Swan epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書下載 2025

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載 2025

圖書描述

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

The Black Swan 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 電子書

著者簡介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

圖書目錄

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載

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用戶評價

評分☆☆☆☆☆

認同的觀點包括經濟學過度依賴數學模型忽略現實中複雜的因素而被NNT稱爲僞科學；Gaussian bell curve is intellectual fraud；那些所謂的expert往往穿西裝打領帶，但聼不聼他們的意見其實根本不重要（比如wall street analyst對於股票走勢的分析和預測）。總之對主流大學教授的經濟、金融、統計學一一炮轟，並結閤瞭作者自己哲學的見地。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

重溫男神的經典之作，雖然提瞭很多次卡尼曼和其他學者在風險管理方麵的理論，但“黑天鵝”應該是提醒大傢注意到小概率不可預測事件帶來的風險的代名詞，也解釋瞭統計學和計量經濟學裏經常齣現的各種假定其實在現實生活中沒有任何行為意義。為此，唯一能做的就是冗餘吧。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

和Fooled by Randomness比，這本書寫得長瞭一點，有點囉嗦 2019.12.11讀第二遍後記：一直想把這本書再讀一遍。但是再讀完一遍反而覺得沒那麼好瞭。很多思想來自彆的作者，又很囉嗦。似乎全書的核心就是批評高斯分布的濫用，因為高斯分布離均值越遠，概率下降越快，從而低估瞭outlier齣現的可能（厚尾）。當然更多的黑天鵝來自不知道的分布。這本書也沒有Fooled by Randomness寫得幽默。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

washington university現任校長曾經推薦的。對probability的新的解讀，用語生動。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

第一本完整讀完的英文原版書。之前讀過中文版，一知半解。這個版本裏有附上Taleb後來的一些essay，對黑天鵝理論進一步完善。顛覆性的思維方式很有趣，對人的非理性和事的不確定性有著通俗又深刻的闡述。在教科書裏浸淫越久，越可以感受到這本書的價值。