The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2025

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Random House Trade Paperbacks

2010-5-11

480

USD 17.00

Paperback

9780812973815

图书标签: 社会学金融思维哲学 Finance 风险管理英文原版经济

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发表于2025-01-22

The Black Swan epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书下载 2025

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2025

图书描述

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

The Black Swan 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书

著者简介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

图书目录

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载

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用户评价

评分☆☆☆☆☆

Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth-remember that you are a black swan.

评分☆☆☆☆☆

帮助你重新思考的一本

评分☆☆☆☆☆

这书要是短一半可以给五颗星。

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啰嗦，大量篇幅都在抱怨世界如何蠢作者如何英明但不被重视。部分论点走了极端。基本观点：复杂系统（如金融）中的随机变量常遵从幂律分布，影响极大的事件以虽小但不可忽略的概率出现（即黑天鹅）。但流行模型往往基于朴素的正态分布假设，故存在致命盲点。因黑天鹅罕见，即使考虑幂律分布拟合的模型也难有预测力。作者建议：对影响正面的黑天鹅尽量激进保证敞口，对负面的则要极度保守。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

帮助你重新思考的一本