The Black Swan

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載2025

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.

出版者:Random House
作者:[美] 納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布
出品人:
頁數:366
译者:
出版時間:2007-4-17
價格:USD 30.00
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9781400063512
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 金融 
  • 思維 
  • 思想 
  • 經濟 
  • 社會學 
  • 投資 
  • 經濟學 
  • finance 
  •  
想要找書就要到 小美書屋
立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本頁
你會得到大驚喜!!

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

具體描述

讀後感

評分

狗听到铃铛的声音,会以为要吃饭了而流口水,人又能好到哪里去。其实人和狗之间作为个体而言没什么太大的差别。 1.一个实验 图的遍历是一个很好玩的小游戏,很难找到一种办法,使得遍历的过程中不重复浏览已经经过的点,如果这种无用的浏览过于频繁,就会极大的降低遍历的效...  

評分

本来也不该指望从畅销书中寻找什么惊为天人的洞识,我看此书的初衷也无非是学习一本畅销书该如何来撰写,以便于日后变成畅销书作家,大把赚银子来买书。如果只是为了这么一个不太高尚的目的,我想在看完之后还是有所体悟的,此书成功的关键就在于1、用一个形象化的手法表达你抖...  

評分

写个读后感也有强迫症似得~不写老觉得这个事没干完... 这是我第一次看书时写了这么多注释~感觉不写个总结式的读后感日志~将来不方便回顾~ 以前曾有种想法~强迫自己每看完一本书然后写个读后感日志什么的~督促自己~ 但后来看的烂书实在太多~不少看过就扔真不值得一提~ 再花几个...  

評分

喝了一口手边的水,我反复告诫以自己: 要对自己诚实,有时候直言不讳一点不见得时间坏事。 《黑天鹅》的观点OK么? 我相信它的观点,我觉得作者的思路也很清晰, 低概率的事件不代表就是不会发生的事情, 所以,我们要相信奇迹。 因为,你跟我都是奇迹的代表。 生命本身就是...  

評分

我们预测30年后的社会保障赤字和石油价格,而没有认识到我们连明年夏天的情况都预测不了,我们在政治经济大事上的累积预测错误是如此巨大,以至于我每次看到这些记录时,都不得不掐一下自己以确定不是在做梦。令人吃惊的不是预测错误之大,而是我们对其毫无意识。在致命性冲突...  

用戶評價

评分

思考和科學最大的對手恐怕就是unknown unknown瞭。也是一個人需要時刻牢記時時反思,並且保持謙卑的原因。Taleb是一個傲慢又謙遜的人,是一個最善良的朋友,又是個自負的渾球。他藐視人,卻對事與真理虔誠。應用層麵上有啓迪之處,更有趣的是Taleb是個哲學思考者。爸爸買瞭漢譯本,似乎譯得不好,流於“暢銷書”譯法瞭。其實詼諧反諷的行文風格也是看點之一。

评分

一塌糊塗

评分

2008.6.18 看瞭幾章覺得整本書都是bullshit. 2009.12.12 重新看完。 廢話很多,且尖酸刻薄。他的想法其實很簡單,我也是基本同意他的觀點的。但是看完以後也不會跟彆人推薦此書。實在是旁門左道憤青之極。

评分

The book itself is interesting enough, but seriously Mister Taleb: we got your point, stop repeating yourself, over and over again!

评分

圖書館沒座,遂抄過此書草草翻過。沒有看齣點在那裏。

本站所有內容均為互聯網搜索引擎提供的公開搜索信息,本站不存儲任何數據與內容,任何內容與數據均與本站無關,如有需要請聯繫相關搜索引擎包括但不限於百度google,bing,sogou

© 2025 book.quotespace.org All Rights Reserved. 小美書屋 版权所有