圖書標籤: 金融 思維 思想 經濟 社會學 投資 經濟學 finance
发表于2024-12-25
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.
我贊成作者提齣的概念,但是這本書的中心內容最多有十頁,剩下的就是顛來倒去一點都不inspiring地反復闡述一個觀點,很多例子不靠譜,很多例子對學過一點心理學或者行為金融都是再基本不過的概念。作者還花瞭大量篇幅自證牛b,並bs這個bs那個。用粗俗一點的比喻就是,作者說其實有一個shit一直粘著我們,你們以為是gem的東西其實是shit,我很早就發現瞭這shit,所以很好地live with it瞭,然後他如祥林嫂一般不停述說為何這是shit,用瞭300頁,最後用瞭兩頁紙,毫無建設性地提瞭提他如何live with shit。讀完之後最大的感受是,tmd終於讀完瞭,終於可以罵人瞭。
評分Bored me to bits.
評分能看齣來作者極其聰明,但是那種深深的做trader時期遺留下來的傲慢態度為這本書大打摺扣。
評分我贊成作者提齣的概念,但是這本書的中心內容最多有十頁,剩下的就是顛來倒去一點都不inspiring地反復闡述一個觀點,很多例子不靠譜,很多例子對學過一點心理學或者行為金融都是再基本不過的概念。作者還花瞭大量篇幅自證牛b,並bs這個bs那個。用粗俗一點的比喻就是,作者說其實有一個shit一直粘著我們,你們以為是gem的東西其實是shit,我很早就發現瞭這shit,所以很好地live with it瞭,然後他如祥林嫂一般不停述說為何這是shit,用瞭300頁,最後用瞭兩頁紙,毫無建設性地提瞭提他如何live with shit。讀完之後最大的感受是,tmd終於讀完瞭,終於可以罵人瞭。
評分The book itself is interesting enough, but seriously Mister Taleb: we got your point, stop repeating yourself, over and over again!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb的The Black Swan是一本关于不确定性和随机性的书,全书充满哲学的思辨和浅显易懂的实例,从历史、统计、人性、心理等角度深入浅出的揭示了人类思维的误区和成因所在,说明了“黑天鹅”的逻辑——你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义。 所谓"黑天鹅“事件...
評分作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...
評分狗听到铃铛的声音,会以为要吃饭了而流口水,人又能好到哪里去。其实人和狗之间作为个体而言没什么太大的差别。 1.一个实验 图的遍历是一个很好玩的小游戏,很难找到一种办法,使得遍历的过程中不重复浏览已经经过的点,如果这种无用的浏览过于频繁,就会极大的降低遍历的效...
評分作为一个数理统计专业并从事金融计量研究工作的人,我认为有必要评价一下这本书.当然我的评论可能会有某些疏漏,请见谅.我假设读者已经研读过这本书.它大概讲了下面几个问题,而且都叙述得比较清楚. 我们为什么不能认识过去? 我们对未来的预测有多差? 我们为什么...
評分我们预测30年后的社会保障赤字和石油价格,而没有认识到我们连明年夏天的情况都预测不了,我们在政治经济大事上的累积预测错误是如此巨大,以至于我每次看到这些记录时,都不得不掐一下自己以确定不是在做梦。令人吃惊的不是预测错误之大,而是我们对其毫无意识。在致命性冲突...
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024