Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.
塔勒布喜欢说一个故事,关于黑天鹅的故事。17世纪的欧洲人们相信所有的天鹅都是白色的,这是牢不可破的信念。直到澳大利亚发现了黑天鹅,视野才重新打开。 黑天鹅的出现证明了我们的认知多么局限,黑天鹅的存在寓于着不可预测的重大事件,它在意料之外却又改变一切。 黑天...
评分“蝴蝶扇动翅膀, 在远方形成了风暴”,这句混沌学的名言陈冠希一定深有体会。一次电脑故障,弄出这么大的事情。他一定很后悔去修电脑了,或者去那家修电脑了,而不是拍了那些照片。那些照片原是可以很严实地被隐藏着,隔绝着,象气球里的空气或埋在地下的煤气管道。只是偶然...
评分1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...
评分Nassim Nicholas Taleb的The Black Swan是一本关于不确定性和随机性的书,全书充满哲学的思辨和浅显易懂的实例,从历史、统计、人性、心理等角度深入浅出的揭示了人类思维的误区和成因所在,说明了“黑天鹅”的逻辑——你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义。 所谓"黑天鹅“事件...
评分在不确定的世界 读书笔记之黑天鹅效应 题记:08年端午节回家的火车上看完了中信出版社的《黑天鹅》,前半段震惊于作者的观点,后半段则变成了雾里看花,不明所以。回到上海从淘宝上买到了台湾版的《黑天鹅效...
图书馆没座,遂抄过此书草草翻过。没有看出点在那里。
评分思考和科学最大的对手恐怕就是unknown unknown了。也是一个人需要时刻牢记时时反思,并且保持谦卑的原因。Taleb是一个傲慢又谦逊的人,是一个最善良的朋友,又是个自负的浑球。他藐视人,却对事与真理虔诚。应用层面上有启迪之处,更有趣的是Taleb是个哲学思考者。爸爸买了汉译本,似乎译得不好,流于“畅销书”译法了。其实诙谐反讽的行文风格也是看点之一。
评分Common sense for any good historian (or history major). Dislike the writing style. The tone is very annoying.
评分思考和科学最大的对手恐怕就是unknown unknown了。也是一个人需要时刻牢记时时反思,并且保持谦卑的原因。Taleb是一个傲慢又谦逊的人,是一个最善良的朋友,又是个自负的浑球。他藐视人,却对事与真理虔诚。应用层面上有启迪之处,更有趣的是Taleb是个哲学思考者。爸爸买了汉译本,似乎译得不好,流于“畅销书”译法了。其实诙谐反讽的行文风格也是看点之一。
评分当年在第三极翻完的
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