The Black Swan

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.

出版者:Random House
作者:[美] 纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布
出品人:
页数:366
译者:
出版时间:2007-4-17
价格:USD 30.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9781400063512
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 金融 
  • 思维 
  • 思想 
  • 经济 
  • 社会学 
  • 投资 
  • 经济学 
  • finance 
  •  
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

具体描述

读后感

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(一) 在512汶川大地震后,民间关于“地震预测”的各种质疑和方法,纷纷出笼。而官方地震局和专家则坚守“地震的不可预知性”和“科学性”。双方是各执一词,互不买账。 我们不懂地震的小老百姓,就只好看热闹。看东风压倒西风,还是西风压倒东风。风风不相容? 其实在...  

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狗听到铃铛的声音,会以为要吃饭了而流口水,人又能好到哪里去。其实人和狗之间作为个体而言没什么太大的差别。 1.一个实验 图的遍历是一个很好玩的小游戏,很难找到一种办法,使得遍历的过程中不重复浏览已经经过的点,如果这种无用的浏览过于频繁,就会极大的降低遍历的效...  

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写个读后感也有强迫症似得~不写老觉得这个事没干完... 这是我第一次看书时写了这么多注释~感觉不写个总结式的读后感日志~将来不方便回顾~ 以前曾有种想法~强迫自己每看完一本书然后写个读后感日志什么的~督促自己~ 但后来看的烂书实在太多~不少看过就扔真不值得一提~ 再花几个...  

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作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...

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『历史是由一系列稀有事件推动的』。这乍一看让人联想起被人民群众口诛笔伐的所谓精英主义,但你要仔细研究人类发展的历史,就会不得不折服于作者的论证。 虽然上层建筑为了统治的需要,会通过教育向基层人民灌输什么『天才来源于人民』等诸如此类的概念作为安抚,但作者实际...  

用户评价

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思考和科学最大的对手恐怕就是unknown unknown了。也是一个人需要时刻牢记时时反思,并且保持谦卑的原因。Taleb是一个傲慢又谦逊的人,是一个最善良的朋友,又是个自负的浑球。他藐视人,却对事与真理虔诚。应用层面上有启迪之处,更有趣的是Taleb是个哲学思考者。爸爸买了汉译本,似乎译得不好,流于“畅销书”译法了。其实诙谐反讽的行文风格也是看点之一。

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思考和科学最大的对手恐怕就是unknown unknown了。也是一个人需要时刻牢记时时反思,并且保持谦卑的原因。Taleb是一个傲慢又谦逊的人,是一个最善良的朋友,又是个自负的浑球。他藐视人,却对事与真理虔诚。应用层面上有启迪之处,更有趣的是Taleb是个哲学思考者。爸爸买了汉译本,似乎译得不好,流于“畅销书”译法了。其实诙谐反讽的行文风格也是看点之一。

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图书馆没座,遂抄过此书草草翻过。没有看出点在那里。

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能看出来作者极其聪明,但是那种深深的做trader时期遗留下来的傲慢态度为这本书大打折扣。

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2007年就出版的一本书,为什么有人说国外的评价很高,但阅读起来并不那么赏心悦目?我告诉你就是翻译问题!强烈建议看原版好么!英文版看得津津有味,不得不说太棒了!薇儿偶然看过中文版几眼,那翻译岂是一个烂字了得!!书中里面充满了作者思辨式的哲学感悟和这种例子。确实是哲学、心理学、统计学和金融学的混合体。好内容太多,但若一定要用简洁的语言来总结的话,给我的感觉核心内容就是:“天机难测,淡定应对”。按照古人的说法就是,面对不确定,要“卒然临之而不惊,无故加之而不怒”。 人们总是因为未知而恐惧,Taleb说未来无法预测,所有的解释都是事后诸葛亮,那么我们该如何自处呢?在我看来,这本书最根本的观点即是端正心态,把时间和精力花到该花的地方,别枉费心机去预测未来,尤其是别把所有的身家性命押在上面。

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