The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025


The Drunkard's Walk

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Leonard Mlodinow
Pantheon
2008-5-13
272
GBP 15.93
Hardcover
9780375424045

圖書標籤: 概率統計  統計學  概率  statistics  思維  心理學  統計  數學   


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发表于2025-01-22

The Drunkard's Walk epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2025

The Drunkard's Walk epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2025

The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025



圖書描述

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

The Drunkard's Walk 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 電子書

著者簡介

Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com


圖書目錄


The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載
想要找書就要到 小哈圖書下載中心
立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本頁
你會得到大驚喜!!

用戶評價

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作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。

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讀完又滾迴去撿起概率論沉思錄瞭…

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讀完又滾迴去撿起概率論沉思錄瞭…

讀後感

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“心理学发现,就成功而言,面对困难毫不退缩的品质,至少与天分同等重要。” 十年规则:多数事情,要取得相当成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,实践和奋斗。勤奋、机遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驱,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失败速度加倍。 能力与成功直接并非等号,偶然性...  

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醉汉的脚步虽然是一本数学科普书,实则在探讨人生观了。我们的大脑习惯于因果性,不适应随机性,会事后诸葛亮的赋予结果以原因和模式,会羊群效应般的从众,这些也许出于本能中对安全的需求。 这本书至少给出了认识客观事实、认识成败、思索人生的另一个角度。既然随机性在事...  

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这本书还是几年前在大学里面看的,却一直记得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的笔调从概率的角度,为我们分析了为什么有时候你努力了却还是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 为什么呢?因为一件事情要发展到最后一步,即他的结果,是由许多因素影响的。往往我们只看到了我们可控...  

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这不是一本入门类,而有点深度的介绍统计发展史的书籍,配以精选的故事或案例,需要有相关统计和概率知识基础才好理解。第一遍阅读时追求速度,感觉很累,只打了3星;第二遍时放慢速度,体会作者的思路,觉得是一本有深度的介绍类书籍,改为5星。 利用本书第一章和第十章的内...  

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