The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025


The Drunkard's Walk

简体网页||繁体网页
Leonard Mlodinow
Pantheon
2008-5-13
272
GBP 15.93
Hardcover
9780375424045

图书标签: 概率统计  统计学  概率  statistics  思维  心理学  统计  数学   


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发表于2025-02-22

The Drunkard's Walk epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书 下载 2025

The Drunkard's Walk epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书 下载 2025

The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025



图书描述

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

The Drunkard's Walk 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书

著者简介

Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com


图书目录


The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载
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用户评价

评分

所谓制胜必有惊人之举,那是因为即使是日常生活,事情的本来面目常常是counterintuition的。“物理学已经向我们证明,草坪的绿色并不只是绿色,石头的硬并不只是硬,而是一些很不同的东西”。概率,或者机遇,也是这么个意思!这本书很好看!

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看看

评分

A great book that ends on a sober note.

评分

顺着历史脉络梳理了自己常常倏地跳出狂外的不切实际,解惑,自省。

评分

Not bad

读后感

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这本书还是几年前在大学里面看的,却一直记得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的笔调从概率的角度,为我们分析了为什么有时候你努力了却还是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 为什么呢?因为一件事情要发展到最后一步,即他的结果,是由许多因素影响的。往往我们只看到了我们可控...  

评分

读书笔记 - 文字摘录地址:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19550698/ 芝诺悖论 古希腊数学家芝诺(Zeno of Elea)提出的一系列关于运动的不可分性的哲学悖论。这些悖论由于被记录在亚里士多德的《物理学》一书中而为后人所知。芝诺提出这些悖论是为了支持他老师巴门尼德...  

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所谓醉汉的脚步,是一个用来描述随机运动的数学术语。作者Leonard Mlodinow以此命名其书,是给读者一个直观冲击:生活中的很多事情,如同宿醉者的脚步一般难以预测。写作此书,也是为了在研究随机性的学术圈和普罗大众之间搭起一座桥梁,那些被学术精英们用来研究和理解醉汉的...  

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这不是一本入门类,而有点深度的介绍统计发展史的书籍,配以精选的故事或案例,需要有相关统计和概率知识基础才好理解。第一遍阅读时追求速度,感觉很累,只打了3星;第二遍时放慢速度,体会作者的思路,觉得是一本有深度的介绍类书籍,改为5星。 利用本书第一章和第十章的内...  

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