图书标签: 概率统计 统计学 概率 statistics 思维 心理学 统计 数学
发表于2025-04-25
The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
读完又滚回去捡起概率论沉思录了…
评分读完又滚回去捡起概率论沉思录了…
评分新年读完的第一本书,说我们的生活其实是被偶然事件所统治,所有成功失败也没有看起来的那么理直气壮,有趣。
评分作者是牛人,书质量也很好。这本科普作品基本上就是帮助人们消除各种谬误的,很多表面看上去理所当然的事其实完全不是那么回事,而一些表面看上去不正常的事反而存在较优的理解方法,关键是要对数据科学有正确的认识。本书的难度不高,没有枯燥的数学公式,有的是大量的历史故事和实际例子,所以作为入门级的课外读物是极好的,我如果有孩子一定会让他读的。对了,最后一章是反对决定论的,虽然此书更多是将社会层面的事,但正好和我最近关注的反基因决定论、反环境决定论和反基因-环境决定论相联系,果然复杂(动态网络)系统才是最有苗头的方向呀,哈哈哈。
评分读完又滚回去捡起概率论沉思录了…
这不是一本入门类,而有点深度的介绍统计发展史的书籍,配以精选的故事或案例,需要有相关统计和概率知识基础才好理解。第一遍阅读时追求速度,感觉很累,只打了3星;第二遍时放慢速度,体会作者的思路,觉得是一本有深度的介绍类书籍,改为5星。 利用本书第一章和第十章的内...
评分各种奇妙而有趣的故事穿插在书中,通过多个维度告诉我们随机性在我们生活中扮演着多么重要的角色。要意识到并承认这一点是非常困难的,因为人脑是基于“因果”而进化而来的。要说服一个人相信他的成功或者失败具有极大的随机性是反人性的。但读过这本书的人在认知上明显可以高...
评分各种奇妙而有趣的故事穿插在书中,通过多个维度告诉我们随机性在我们生活中扮演着多么重要的角色。要意识到并承认这一点是非常困难的,因为人脑是基于“因果”而进化而来的。要说服一个人相信他的成功或者失败具有极大的随机性是反人性的。但读过这本书的人在认知上明显可以高...
评分所谓醉汉的脚步,是一个用来描述随机运动的数学术语。作者Leonard Mlodinow以此命名其书,是给读者一个直观冲击:生活中的很多事情,如同宿醉者的脚步一般难以预测。写作此书,也是为了在研究随机性的学术圈和普罗大众之间搭起一座桥梁,那些被学术精英们用来研究和理解醉汉的...
评分除了介绍基本统计和概率的概念,还有关于专家的人物介绍,满有趣的。 人物描述都非常的生动,比如,从前的学习,只知道Fisher创立了好多tests, 现在,这些专家不再仅仅是一些枯燥的名字,更是有血肉的人了。 统计基本概念方面,我想这本书是除了课本以外,讲的最好的了。而且...
The Drunkard's Walk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025