The Book of Why pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2024

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Judea Pearl

Basic Books

2018-5-15

432

USD 32.00

Hardcover

9780465097609

图书标签: 统计逻辑方法论计算机因果哲学科普 AI

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发表于2024-12-26

The Book of Why epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书下载 2024

The Book of Why pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2024

图书描述

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence

“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality–the study of cause and effect–on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl’s work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

The Book of Why 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书

著者简介

Judea Pearl is a professor of computer science at UCLA and winner of the 2011 Turing Award and the author of three classic technical books on causality. He lives in Los Angeles, California.

Dana Mackenzie is an award-winning science writer and the author of The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.

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The Book of Why pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载

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用户评价

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去年nips有眼不识泰山没去听老爷子的talk，作为初级炼丹工看这本面向大众的新书补课也很开眼界。“相关不蕴涵因果”讲得多了都不知道所谓因果关系究竟是什么。仅靠拟合数据，不管是用深度学习还是多fancy的方法，都无法表示因果关系；要谈论因果乃至虚拟事实，须明确引入数据以外的假设，而书中也指明了什么样的假设配上什么样的数据可以回答什么样的因果问题。现实生活中很多问题都不能做随机对照试验，这套理论也因此格外重要。要是老爷子再谈谈他对强化学习的看法就好了。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

总算有本Judea Pearl的书是我能看懂的了，虽然是科普……读下来的感觉，Pearl的工作将人类直觉化的因果推理能力用数学形式表达了出来，使causal effect成为可以估计的变量。但因果模型如何提出，如何验证，似乎并没有涉及太多。如果强人工智能需要学会因果推理，提出模型应该比估算模型要难得多，也重要得多。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

每个人都是一部因果关系自动机。真要把人脑对因果的思维过程掰扯明白，还真是不容易。作者的因果模型，是把复杂问题简单化的经典例子了。

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学习一哈

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Heckman, Rubin, Pearl的爱恨情仇啊。From Gelman, Pearl’s obnoxiousness obstructs the disemmination of his ideas. And works by economists are swept under the rug. 画图容易，但用Rubin亦可。同样的问题仍是我们有哪些x该放进来？然后如何从ate到更有意义的参数是根本的识别问题也是modelling problem，这个用图难以。另外经济学家最大的一个贡献（语出Hausman）就是sem；Pearl似乎不能领会我们为何要用sem。端看pearl能不能用dag来写一个市场均衡模型. Imbens最近写了一篇review说经济学家们不用学图论用处不多