具体描述
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence
“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality–the study of cause and effect–on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl’s work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
作者简介
Judea Pearl is a professor of computer science at UCLA and winner of the 2011 Turing Award and the author of three classic technical books on causality. He lives in Los Angeles, California.
Dana Mackenzie is an award-winning science writer and the author of The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.
目录信息
读后感
The ladder of causation Association Predictions based on passive observations Intervention Involving not just seeing but changing what is Counterfactuals Not only experiments, but also need the model of the underlying causal process--"theory" or "a law of n...
用户评价
总算有本Judea Pearl的书是我能看懂的了，虽然是科普……读下来的感觉，Pearl的工作将人类直觉化的因果推理能力用数学形式表达了出来，使causal effect成为可以估计的变量。但因果模型如何提出，如何验证，似乎并没有涉及太多。如果强人工智能需要学会因果推理，提出模型应该比估算模型要难得多，也重要得多。
评分很不错，很受启发。其实语言限制思维这个简单的事情也很有意思。说个身边的例子，很多人说深圳要取代香港，却不知道深圳何以成为深圳。当年邓公画了五个特区，只有一个成功了。稍微动脑子问一下why就知道深圳成功的唯一原因就是香港。去年香港打了个喷嚏，深圳就半瘫痪了。这两个不可分割的玩意，竟然有一方把另一方当作对手。。。
评分Not my book though
评分让我这个很想粗浅了解统计学的人是一个很好的入门教材。从经典统计学，到贝叶斯，到因果关系都是有很好的介绍。里面的例子很有趣也很烧脑，虽然不知道如何直接利用里面的公式，但是至少知道在统计学之外还有别的工具可以使用。
评分知其所以然。
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