Streetlights and Shadows pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2024

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Gary Klein

The MIT Press

2009-10-30

352

USD 27.95

Hardcover

9780262013390

图书标签: 决策 GaryKlein 设计行为经济学 Yang 心理 insightful Finance

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发表于2024-11-22

Streetlights and Shadows epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书下载 2024

Streetlights and Shadows pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2024

图书描述

In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines--gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete--but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples--ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels--to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything.

Streetlights and Shadows 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书

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Streetlights and Shadows pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载

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少一分，是因为有点啰嗦

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adapting : moving targets , the risks of risk management , the cognitive wavelength , unlearning .

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adapting : moving targets , the risks of risk management , the cognitive wavelength , unlearning .

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"We agonize the most, spend the most time and effort, making choices that are inside the Zone of Indifference, when we might as well flip a coin. The analytical methods are designed to help us make the toughest choices, but once we realize we are inside the...

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