图书标签: Finance 金融 思维 经济 随机 投资 心理学 概率论
发表于2025-02-16
Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025
Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading– Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS :
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[ Fooled by Randomness ] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
–National Review
“If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.”
–Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
“Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.”
–Financial Times
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.
Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.
满载作者优越感的烂书
评分课程必读材料,读了一页就遇到了一个问题:I can't read it if I can't even see the words over the author's ego. 撑着读了四章,实在看不下去了。
评分看完以后,发现几个新的兴趣点。一,波普尔的科学哲学和开放社会。二,行为经济学。三,概率论。四,期权市场及策略。
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评分上帝:我要掷骰子了,看看谁是下一个首富?
我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大,或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料,未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人,我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史(denigration of history):因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得,发生在别人身上的事情,不见得会发生...
评分 评分没接触过概率论、统计学的人理应打超过三星以上,这再次体现了打分反映的是书与读书人之间的关系,而非只反映书的质量。 关于存活性偏差,可以概括为,同时在多个概率事件中发生,被当作具有普遍意义,从而产生认识上的偏差。 1旧有的事情因为存活性偏差可能不足以充当预测未...
评分给四星是因为作者所推崇的“科学的可证伪性”,那一星的空白权当是尊重作者本意使之“科学化”了。还是Robert Shiller的金融市场课的参考书目。课听到一半倒是把书搜出来一口气一个通宵给看完了。颠覆啊!作者不相信投资组合那套,评价巴菲特的简朴作风“毫无必要”。这里探讨...
Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025