J. Scott Armstrong

Professor of Marketing

Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the “Favorite Book – First 25 Years” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies.

In addition to forecasting, Professor Armstrong has published papers on survey research, educational methods, applied statistics, social responsibility, strategic planning, and scientific peer review. Most recently, his research activities have involved political forecasting (he is a co-founder of PollyVote.com) and forecasting for conflicts and terrorism. Among his findings is that competitor-oriented objectives are harmful to profits; formal planning improves profitability; and stakeholder management reduces social irresponsibility. He also developed the widely used “extrapolation-by-waves” method for estimating nonresponse bias in surveys.

In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Professor Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. I n 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters. He serves or has served on Editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces and the International Journal of Forecasting , and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000. One of the most frequently cited marketing professors worldwide, his "first-author" citation rate currently averages over 200 per year.

A member of the Wharton Marketing Faculty since 1968, Professor Armstrong received his PhD in Management from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his MS in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University, and his BS degree in Industrial Engineering and BA in Applied Science from Lehigh University. He has also taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.

Currently, he is working on a book, Persuasive Advertising and on advertisingprinciples.com, which was given MERLOT's 2004 award as the "Best “Internet Site in Business Education."

Curriculum Vita and Annual Summaries of Activities

Curriculum Vitae

Annual Summary - 2005

Annual Summary - 2004

Annual Summary - 2003

Annual Summary - 2002

Annual Summary - 2001

Current Projects

Assessing academic research

Business School Rankings

How to Evaluate Faculty

Important Findings in Marketing

Response to Commentary on Important Findings in Marketing

Reaping Benefits from Management Research with Reply

Corporate governance

"Corporate Boards Should Represent a Broader Community of Interests"(Knowledge@Wharton)

"Social Irresponsibility in Management"

The Panalba Case (see related documents under Product Policy on my Educational Materials page)

"Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications of the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship"

Predicting decisions in conflict situations

Structured Analogies for Forecasting, paper by Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment (in response to paper by Kesten Green)

Discussion of game theory in Financial Times, March 2002

Role Playing

Forecasting in Conflicts (from Knowledge@Wharton)