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Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Prefeface and Acknowledgements........................................................................... V
List of Contributing Authors................................................................................... IX
Section I Introduction to Uncertainty and Surprise .............................................. 1
1 Uncertainty and Surprise: An Introduction........................................................... 3
2 Surprises in a Half Century .................................................................................. 13
Section II Central Themes on Uncertainty and Surprise ................................... 17
3 Complexity, Uncertainty and Surprise: An Integrated View ............................ 19
4 The Evolutionary Complexity of Social Economic Systems:
The Inevitability of Uncertainty and Surprise..................................................... 31
5 Managing the Unexpected:
Complexity as Distributed Sensemaking ............................................................ 51
Section III Differing Views of Uncertainty and Surprise....................................... 67
Section IIIA Fundamental Unknowability in Science and Social Science ............ 69
6 Fundamental “Uncertainty” in Science................................................................ 71
7 The Complementary Nature of Coordination Dynamics:
Toward a Science of the In-Between.................................................................. 77
8 The Tyranny of Many Dimensionless Constants:
A Constraint on Knowability............................................................................... 87
Section IIIB Organizational Issues of Uncertainty................................................. 93
9 A View from the Inside:
The Task of Managing Uncertainty and Surprise ............................................... 95
10 An Introduction to the Mathematics and Meaning of Chaos ............................ 99
Section IIIC Fundamental Uncertainty and the Delivery of Health Care............ 107
11 The Social Construction of Uncertainty in Healthcare Delivery .................... 109
12 Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise............................................ 123
13 Medical Errors and Microsystems:
The Best Things Cannot be Told ...................................................................... 131
14 Organization and Leadership in Hospitals....................................................... 145
Section IIID Fundamental Uncertainty in Business and
Business Decision Making ................................................................ 151
15 Fundamental Uncertainty in Business: Real Options...................................... 153
16 Transforming Your Regional Economy through Uncertainty and Surprise:
Learning from Complexity Science, Network Theory and the Field ............... 165
17 Uncertainty and Certainty ................................................................................ 177
Section IV Conversations on Uncertainty and Surprise....................................... 181
18 Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion ........................... 183
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