图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
发表于2024-07-04
The Signal and the Noise pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好
评分Case挺多,key message没啥特别新意。无非就是基于动态系统随时修正,充分考虑样本之间的关系假设和结果概率等。
评分Case挺多,key message没啥特别新意。无非就是基于动态系统随时修正,充分考虑样本之间的关系假设和结果概率等。
评分结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好
评分第一章第一个表就错了。。于是已经不想再往下看了。。// 略嫌片儿汤,以后豆瓣评分50人以上且8.0以下的流行畅销书都不要看了
学定量研究那会儿,每天和SPSS打交道,念12345念到要吐,所以对数据分析有着深深的怨念。 而且因为我们在分析之前都会有一个研究假设,可是最后通常在输入了几百张问卷或者分析了几百个文本然后各种分析之后发现结果跟我们一开始设想的完全不一样,于是又要各种...
评分今天出门的时候,看到满街树木都很憔悴,染上了深深浅浅的黄色。远远看到街角处一树红红绿绿层层叠叠的,就像是和纸和和服织锦般灿烂华美得不可思议……居然这时候开了花?忍不住走到树下驻足,凝眸细看——居然是棵枫树?!可我在这住了这么些年了,还是第一次发现自家楼下居...
评分今天出门的时候,看到满街树木都很憔悴,染上了深深浅浅的黄色。远远看到街角处一树红红绿绿层层叠叠的,就像是和纸和和服织锦般灿烂华美得不可思议……居然这时候开了花?忍不住走到树下驻足,凝眸细看——居然是棵枫树?!可我在这住了这么些年了,还是第一次发现自家楼下居...
评分 评分学定量研究那会儿,每天和SPSS打交道,念12345念到要吐,所以对数据分析有着深深的怨念。 而且因为我们在分析之前都会有一个研究假设,可是最后通常在输入了几百张问卷或者分析了几百个文本然后各种分析之后发现结果跟我们一开始设想的完全不一样,于是又要各种...
The Signal and the Noise pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024