Probability, Econometrics and Truth

Probability, Econometrics and Truth pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025

出版者:
作者:Keuzenkamp, Hugo A.
出品人:
页数:322
译者:
出版时间:2000-11
价格:$ 160.46
装帧:
isbn号码:9780521553599
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 计量经济学 
  • 計量經濟學 
  • 蓋然性 
  • 荷蘭 
  • 结论 
  • 經濟學 
  • 真相 
  • 歐洲 
  •  
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When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

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