具体描述
A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.
What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?
These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.
Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.
As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.
作者简介
“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most insightful voices we now have on national security issues. You can read this book—or we can go on learning the hard way.” —Thomas E. Ricks, military correspondent, Washington Post, and author of Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq
“This insightful and provocative book must be read by our nation’s leaders, and those who are charged with protecting us now and into the next decade.” —Bing West, author of The Strongest Tribe and No True Glory
“Andrew Krepinevich has shown, once again, how best to think about the unthinkable. This prescient book identifies the all-too-real threats that our country faces and prescribes the steps that the president, the military, and Congress must take to meet them.” —Senator Joe Lieberman
“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most original and insightful strategic thinkers of our time….His thought provoking scenarios of the most critical areas of national security policy raise profound and necessary questions that must be addressed today in order to prevail tomorrow.” —Senator Jack Reed
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说实话，我一开始是被这本书的封面吸引的，但读进去之后才发现，内容远比封面所呈现的要深刻得多。这更像是一部关于“选择的代价”的社会寓言，而非简单的故事叙述。作者构建了一个极其精密的逻辑世界，每一个看似不经意的细节，到最后都会汇聚成一个惊天动地的后果。我特别欣赏作者在叙事节奏上的掌控力，他知道什么时候该让你喘口气，什么时候又该猛地收紧缰绳，让你喘不过气来。书中的几位配角，虽然戏份不一定最多，但个个形象鲜明，他们的动机和背景都相当饱满，完全不是那种脸谱化的工具人。读完后，我感觉自己仿佛经历了一场漫长而艰辛的智力马拉松，需要时间去消化那些关于权力、欲望和自我救赎的思考。
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评分这部小说简直让人欲罢不能，那种层层递进的悬念和人物内心的挣扎，刻画得入木三分。作者的笔力非常老辣，每一个场景的切换都恰到好处，让你感觉自己就是那个深陷泥潭的主角，呼吸都变得急促起来。我特别喜欢他对环境和氛围的渲染，那种压抑感，即使是隔着书页都能清晰地感受到。情节推进得如同慢火熬汤，看似平稳，实则暗流汹涌，时不时冒出一个让你拍案叫绝的转折点。特别是关于主角做出艰难抉择的那几章，那种道德困境和人性的复杂性被展现得淋漓尽致，让人忍不住合上书本，细细回味，思考“如果是我，会怎么做”。这本书的情感张力处理得非常到位，没有刻意的煽情，一切都源于角色自身命运的必然走向，读完后心中久久不能平静，强烈推荐给喜欢深度心理探索和高智商对决的读者。
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