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发表于2025-02-16
The black swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb),一生專注於研究運氣、不確定性、概率和知識。他既是文學隨筆傢,又是經驗主義者,又是理智的數理證券交易員,目前擔任阿姆赫斯特馬薩諸塞大學隨機科學係教授。他的上一本暢銷書《隨機緻富的傻瓜》(Fooled by Randomness)以20種語言齣版。大部分時候他生活在紐約。
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評分為什麼標題括號裏是“TR”?
評分這本書中心思想就是我們現在學的都是扯淡的
評分his view is unique,
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評分1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...
評分本来也不该指望从畅销书中寻找什么惊为天人的洞识,我看此书的初衷也无非是学习一本畅销书该如何来撰写,以便于日后变成畅销书作家,大把赚银子来买书。如果只是为了这么一个不太高尚的目的,我想在看完之后还是有所体悟的,此书成功的关键就在于1、用一个形象化的手法表达你抖...
評分在不确定的世界 读书笔记之黑天鹅效应 题记:08年端午节回家的火车上看完了中信出版社的《黑天鹅》,前半段震惊于作者的观点,后半段则变成了雾里看花,不明所以。回到上海从淘宝上买到了台湾版的《黑天鹅效...
The black swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025