图书标签: 统计学 投资 Finance 金融 思想 心理学 金融学 英文原版
发表于2024-08-02
The black swan pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb),一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家,又是经验主义者,又是理智的数理证券交易员,目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》(Fooled by Randomness)以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。
Don't ask why a Black Swan appeared. Find what you can get from this black swan.
评分his view is unique,
评分为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。
评分为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。
评分这本书中心思想就是我们现在学的都是扯淡的
这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...
评分(一) 在512汶川大地震后,民间关于“地震预测”的各种质疑和方法,纷纷出笼。而官方地震局和专家则坚守“地震的不可预知性”和“科学性”。双方是各执一词,互不买账。 我们不懂地震的小老百姓,就只好看热闹。看东风压倒西风,还是西风压倒东风。风风不相容? 其实在...
评分这本书提前预见并解释了现在金融风暴。作者实践他自己的理论,在华尔街发了小财,然后定下心来周游全世界的咖啡馆,慢慢写下这本书。用他自己的话概括,this is a "fuck you" book。 智力上有些冲击力,因为作者的意图在于挑战很多“常识”。核心的线索是,金融风暴这种”小概...
评分作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...
评分作为一本畅销书,作者毫不犹豫的把片面、失真,但是哗众取宠的信息传递给了大家。 1、使用了非常错误而且误导性的例子 作者用火鸡举例:“火鸡享受了100天的美食,以为人类是友好的,结果101天被宰杀了。” 通过这个例子作者想表达特殊事件(统计上的小概率事件)的影响是...
The black swan pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024