The black swan

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纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb),一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家,又是经验主义者,又是理智的数理证券交易员,目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》(Fooled by Randomness)以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。

出版者:Random House USA
作者:Nissim Nicholas Taleb
出品人:
页数:366
译者:
出版时间:2008-3-10
价格:GBP 11.36
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9780812979183
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 统计学 
  • 投资 
  • Finance 
  • 金融 
  • 思想 
  • 心理学 
  • 金融学 
  • 英文原版 
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

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读后感

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塔勒布喜欢说一个故事,关于黑天鹅的故事。17世纪的欧洲人们相信所有的天鹅都是白色的,这是牢不可破的信念。直到澳大利亚发现了黑天鹅,视野才重新打开。 黑天鹅的出现证明了我们的认知多么局限,黑天鹅的存在寓于着不可预测的重大事件,它在意料之外却又改变一切。 黑天...  

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(一) 在512汶川大地震后,民间关于“地震预测”的各种质疑和方法,纷纷出笼。而官方地震局和专家则坚守“地震的不可预知性”和“科学性”。双方是各执一词,互不买账。 我们不懂地震的小老百姓,就只好看热闹。看东风压倒西风,还是西风压倒东风。风风不相容? 其实在...  

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狗听到铃铛的声音,会以为要吃饭了而流口水,人又能好到哪里去。其实人和狗之间作为个体而言没什么太大的差别。 1.一个实验 图的遍历是一个很好玩的小游戏,很难找到一种办法,使得遍历的过程中不重复浏览已经经过的点,如果这种无用的浏览过于频繁,就会极大的降低遍历的效...  

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写个读后感也有强迫症似得~不写老觉得这个事没干完... 这是我第一次看书时写了这么多注释~感觉不写个总结式的读后感日志~将来不方便回顾~ 以前曾有种想法~强迫自己每看完一本书然后写个读后感日志什么的~督促自己~ 但后来看的烂书实在太多~不少看过就扔真不值得一提~ 再花几个...  

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1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...  

用户评价

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还原世界真实的样子。 本书会告诉你, 是什么推动了人类的发展。

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Don't ask why a Black Swan appeared. Find what you can get from this black swan.

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为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。2018/1/6

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还原世界真实的样子。 本书会告诉你, 是什么推动了人类的发展。

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为什么标题括号里是“TR”?

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