The Age of Fallibility

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出版者:PublicAffairs,U.S.
作者:George Soros
出品人:
页数:288
译者:
出版时间:2007-1-9
价格:GBP 14.95
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9781586484941
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 哲学
  • GeorgeSoros
  • 社会学
  • 索罗斯
  • 美国
  • 经济学
  • 金融
  • 英文
  • 哲学
  • 怀疑论
  • 知识论
  • 科学史
  • 人类局限
  • 认知局限
  • 理性批判
  • 不确定性
  • 思想史
  • 反思
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具体描述

Blinded by a concept

11:06 AM PDT, August 31, 2006

The failure of Israel to subdue Hezbollah demonstrates the many weaknesses of the war-on-terror concept. One of those weaknesses is that even if the targets are terrorists, the victims are often innocent civilians, and their suffering reinforces the terrorist cause.

In response to Hezbollah's attacks, Israel was justified in attacking Hezbollah to protect itself against the threat of missiles on its border. However, Israel should have taken greater care to minimize collateral damage. The civilian casualties and material damage inflicted on Lebanon inflamed Muslims and world opinion against Israel and converted Hezbollah from aggressors to heroes of resistance for many. Weakening Lebanon has also made it more difficult to rein in Hezbollah.

Another weakness of the war-on-terror concept is that it relies on military action and rules out political approaches. Israel previously withdrew from Lebanon and then from Gaza unilaterally, rather than negotiating political settlements with the Lebanese government and the Palestinian authority. The strengthening of Hezbollah and Hamas was a direct consequence of that approach. The war-on-terror concept stands in the way of recognizing this fact because it separates "us" from "them" and denies that our actions help shape their behavior.

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A third weakness is that the war-on-terror concept lumps together different political movements that use terrorist tactics. It fails to distinguish between Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda or the Sunni insurrection and the Mahdi militia in Iraq. Yet all these terrorist manifestations, being different, require different responses. Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah can be treated merely as targets in the war on terror because they have deep roots in their societies; yet there are profound differences between them.

Looking back, it is easy to see where Israeli policy went wrong. When Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian Authority, Israel should have gone out of its way to strengthen him and his reformist team. When Israel withdrew from Gaza, the former head of the World Bank, James Wolfensohn, negotiated a six-point plan on behalf of the Quartet for the Middle East (Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations). It included opening crossings between Gaza and the West Bank, an airport and seaport in Gaza, opening the border with Egypt, and transferring the greenhouses abandoned by Israeli settlers into Arab hands.

None of the six points was implemented. This contributed to Hamas?s electoral victory. The Bush administration, having pushed Israel to allow the Palestinians to hold elections, then backed Israel?s refusal to deal with a Hamas government. The effect was to impose further hardship on the Palestinians.

Nevertheless, Abbas was able to forge an agreement with the political arm of Hamas for the formation of a unity government. It was to foil this agreement that the military branch of Hamas, run from Damascus, engaged in the provocation that brought a heavy-handed response from Israel - which in turn incited Hezbollah to further provocation, opening a second front. That is how extremists play off against each other to destroy any chance of political progress.

Israel has been a participant in this game, and President Bush bought into this flawed policy, uncritically supporting Israel. Events have shown that this policy leads to the escalation of violence. The process has advanced to the point where Israel's unquestioned military superiority is no longer sufficient to overcome the negative consequences of its policy.

Israel is now more endangered in it existence that it was at the time of the Oslo Agreement on peace. Similarly, The United States has become less safe since President Bush declared war on terror.

The time has come to realize that the present policies are counterproductive. There will be no end to the vicious circle of escalating violence without a political settlement of the Palestine question. In fact, the prospects for engaging in negotiations are better now than they were a few months ago. The Israelis must realize that a military deterrent is not sufficient on its own. And Arabs, having redeemed themselves on the battlefield, may be more willing to entertain a compromise.

There are strong voices arguing that Israel must never negotiate from a position of weakness. They are wrong. Israel?s position is liable to become weaker the longer it persists on its present course. Similarly Hezbollah, having tasted the sense but not the reality of victory (and egged on by Syria and Iran) may prove recalcitrant. But that is where the difference between Hezbollah and Hamas comes into play. The Palestinian people yearn for peace and relief from suffering. The political - as distinct from the military - wing of Hamas must be responsive to their desires. It is not too late for Israel to encourage and deal with an Abbas-led Palestinian unity government as the first step toward a better-balanced approach. Given how strong the U.S.-Israeli relationship is, it would help Israel achieve its own legitimate aims if the U.S. government were not blinded by the war-on-terror concept.

《错位的岁月》 在这片由无知和傲慢交织而成的迷雾中,个体与集体的认知边界模糊不清。历史的车轮滚滚向前,却似乎总被一股无形的力量拖曳,使得前进的步伐踉跄而错乱。人们以为自己掌握了真理,却不知早已被精心编织的谎言所蒙蔽。 故事发生在一个看似繁荣却暗流涌动的时代,科技的飞速发展并未带来预期的解放,反而滋生出前所未有的隔阂与疏离。信息如潮水般涌来,却鲜少有人能够分辨真伪,公众舆论在碎片化的信息洪流中摇摆不定,真相变得遥不可及。 主人公艾伦,是一位曾经对这个世界充满理想的年轻历史学家。他曾以为,通过深入研究过去,就能洞悉未来的走向,从而为当下提供宝贵的启示。然而,随着他对历史真相的不断追寻,他却发现自己陷入了一个更加庞大的迷局。他接触到的文献、证词,甚至是官方记录,都充满了矛盾与隐瞒。曾经坚定不移的信念开始动摇,他对历史的理解,以及对这个时代所有人行为动机的判断,都受到了前所未有的挑战。 他开始注意到,那些在公众视野中熠熠生辉的“事实”,往往存在着微妙的裂痕。那些被奉为圭臬的“理性”决策,背后却隐藏着不为人知的利益交换与操纵。社会似乎被分裂成几个泾渭分明的群体,他们各自固守着自己狭隘的认知,拒绝接受任何与之相悖的观点,即使这些观点基于铁的事实。 在一次偶然的机会,艾伦接触到了一群被边缘化的学者和活动家。他们长期以来都在默默地挖掘被掩埋的真相,试图唤醒沉睡的公众。这群人虽然力量微薄,却拥有着惊人的洞察力和坚韧的毅力。他们向艾伦揭示了这个时代不为人知的另一面:信息的操纵、权力的腐蚀、以及集体无意识的盲从。 艾伦逐渐意识到,他所处的时代,并非是知识和进步的巅峰,而是一个“错位的岁月”。在这个时代,人们的认知能力似乎正在退化,他们更倾向于相信那些能带来即时满足感和情感共鸣的叙事,而非那些需要深度思考和批判性分析的复杂真相。媒体、教育机构,甚至是某些看似独立的组织,都在不同程度上扮演着误导者的角色,以各种隐晦或直接的方式,塑造着人们的认知,巩固着现有的权力结构。 随着调查的深入,艾伦发现一个跨越不同领域、不同阶层的秘密网络,他们利用公众的认知弱点,巧妙地引导着社会的发展方向,而绝大多数人都对此浑然不觉,甚至积极地配合着他们的“议程”。这个网络并非是一个单一的阴谋组织,而是一系列松散却相互关联的利益体,他们通过信息不对称、情感操纵以及对叙事的垄断,来达成各自的目的。 艾伦的发现让他陷入了巨大的危险之中。他所触碰到的,是这个时代最核心的秘密。那些试图维持“错位”状态的力量,绝不允许真相的暴露。他开始受到来自各方的压力,他的研究成果被质疑,他的个人生活被干扰,甚至生命安全也受到了威胁。 在这个孤独的斗争中,艾伦必须学会如何在充斥着谎言和误导的环境中保持清醒,如何辨别信息背后的真正意图,以及如何找到能够帮助他传播真相的盟友。他开始反思,究竟是什么导致了这场“错位”?是人性深处的弱点,还是社会结构本身的弊病? 《错位的岁月》不仅仅是一个关于揭露真相的故事,更是一次对人类认知能力、集体心理以及社会运作机制的深刻探讨。它审视了信息时代下,个体如何在这种无处不在的误导中保持独立思考,以及在一个充斥着虚假和盲从的世界里,如何重新找回属于自己的判断力。故事将带领读者一同踏上一段充满挑战的旅程,去质疑那些被认为是理所当然的“事实”,去审视那些被刻意塑造的“共识”,最终,去探索在“错位的岁月”中,如何点燃希望,重塑认知。 小说深刻地描绘了在这个信息爆炸但真相稀缺的时代,人们是如何在不知不觉中成为集体无意识的俘虏。从政治的宏大叙事到日常生活中的消费选择,都可能被精心设计的“故事”所左右。艾伦的经历,是无数在信息洪流中迷失方向的个体的缩影,他试图挣脱束缚,但却发现自己面临的敌人,是如此普遍而又难以捉摸——它存在于每一个被简化和扭曲的观念之中,存在于每一次情感的泛滥和理性的缺席之中。 故事的张力在于,它既有悬疑的推进,也有哲学的思辨。读者将跟随艾伦的脚步,一同经历发现的惊喜、被欺骗的愤怒、以及面对重重阻碍时的绝望。但同时,它也提供了希望的微光。那些在黑暗中默默耕耘的探索者,那些敢于质疑和发声的个体,都成为了对抗“错位”的力量。 《错位的岁月》并非要传递一种悲观论调,而是希望引发一种深刻的反思。它鼓励读者去审视自己的信息来源,去培养批判性思维,去警惕那些试图简化复杂现实的叙事。它揭示了,在这个“错位的岁月”中,最强大的武器,永远是独立思考的能力,以及对真相永不放弃的追求。

作者简介

George Soros born August 12, 1930, in Budapest, Hungary, as György Schwartz is an American financial speculator, stock investor, philanthropist, and political activist.[2] He peacefully promotes democracy in Eastern Europe.

Currently, he is the chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Institute and is also a former member of the Board of Directors of the Council on Foreign Relations. His support for the Solidarity labor movement in Poland, as well as the Czechoslovakian human rights organization Charter 77, contributed to ending Soviet Union political dominance in those countries.[3] His funding and organization of Georgia's Rose Revolution was considered by Russian and Western observers to have been crucial to its success, although Soros said his role has been "greatly exaggerated." In the United States, he is known for having donated large sums of money in a failed effort to defeat President George W. Bush's bid for re-election in 2004.

Soros is famously known for "breaking the Bank of England" on Black Wednesday in 1992. With an estimated current net worth of around $8.5 billion, he is ranked by Forbes as the 80th-richest person in the world.[1]

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker wrote in 2003 in the foreword of Soros' book The Alchemy of Finance:

"George Soros has made his mark as an enormously successful speculator, wise enough to largely withdraw when still way ahead of the game. The bulk of his enormous winnings is now devoted to encouraging transitional and emerging nations to become 'open societies,' open not only in the sense of freedom of commerce but - more important - tolerant of new ideas and different modes of thinking and behavior."

目录信息

读后感

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开放社会最大的恩赐和足以让他成为一种理想的成就,就是个人自由。它允许人们独立思考,决定自己的需要,以及实现自己的梦想。如果封闭社会公开宣称的目标是维护一个阶级(种族或民族)的优越地位,这种目标实现起来可能不费吹灰之力。但如果它的目的是重新回复有机社会的悠闲...  

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3p 作为事件的存在者和参与者。我们不完全的理解或易犯错的特性也成为了现实的一部分。我们对全世界的看法和真实的世界永远不相一致,因为我们本身就是这世界的一部分。 4p 思维与现实并非非此即彼独立的实体,两者是整体与部分的关系。表述和事实之间并不是单向的符合,而是双...  

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我们对于世界的看法永远和真实的世界不相一致,因为我们本来就是社会的一部分。我们在无意识间的想法也成为我们必须要考虑的。理解思维与现实之间的关系,就好比射活靶。我们对世界的看法也在改变着世界。这样一来,人们便无法对世间万物获得完美的认识。 通过考虑思维与现实...  

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开放社会:相对静态的,产生固定的统治阶级的社会被认为是封闭社会;而由公民积极参与的,以不断自我改正错误的社会是开放社会的核心想法。 不写专门传记的缘由: 思维方式抽象,除非具体事件提供人生经验或见解,否则=一无是处:不留痕迹 更愿意解释他的人生理念框架 人类对...  

用户评价

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这本书在我的书架上已经放了好一阵子了,每次翻开它,总能被作者的深邃洞察所折服。他笔下的文字,不像那种让你读完之后立刻觉得“我懂了”的畅销书,而是更像一个老朋友在低语,娓娓道来那些你似曾相识却又从未清晰捕捉到的感受。他擅长用日常的片段,那些我们每天都会经历的琐碎,去揭示宏大的历史进程和深层的社会结构。我常常会停下来,反复咀嚼他描绘的某个场景,比如那个在咖啡馆里,人们围绕着新闻事件激烈争论的画面,或者是在人群中,个体那种难以言说的孤独感。这些描绘不仅生动,更触及了我们内心最柔软的部分,让我们反思自己与这个世界的关系。我特别欣赏作者那种不动声色的批判,他并不直接指责,而是通过铺陈事实,引导读者自己去得出结论。这种方式既尊重了读者的独立思考能力,又显得尤为有力。读完之后,我感觉自己好像站在了一个更高的视角,能够更清晰地审视那些曾经让我困惑不解的现象。它不是一本能够让你立刻获得某种“力量”的书,但它绝对是一本能够悄悄改变你看待世界方式的书,那种改变是潜移默化的,却又持久而深远。

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这本书给我的感觉,就像是在一个迷雾笼罩的清晨,我独自一人走在一条陌生的山路上。周围的一切都显得模糊不清,但我能感受到一股强大的引力,驱使我继续向前。作者的文字就如同那晨雾中的微光,时隐时现,却总能指引我找到方向。他并不直接告诉终点在哪里,而是通过一个个细微的观察,一点点地揭示出前路的轮廓。我常常被他提出的问题所吸引,那些问题看似简单,却又直击人心的本质。他让我们去思考,在信息爆炸的时代,我们是如何被裹挟着前进的,我们的判断力是否真的还掌握在自己手中。阅读这本书,就像进行了一场漫长的对话,对话的对象不仅是作者,更是那个在信息洪流中迷失自我的我。我开始审视自己的选择,审视那些影响我决策的因素,甚至审视我所追逐的那些“价值”。这本书的伟大之处在于,它没有提供现成的答案,而是鼓励你去寻找属于自己的答案。它像一面镜子,映照出我们内心的迷茫和焦虑,同时也暗示着,我们拥有改变和超越这一切的可能性。

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这本书带给我的,是一种前所未有的启迪。作者以一种极为独特的方式,将宏大的历史叙事与个体经验巧妙地融合在一起。他并不试图去描绘一个清晰的蓝图,而是通过一个个碎片化的观察,拼凑出这个时代的面貌。我尤其欣赏他对于“不确定性”的强调,他让我们认识到,在充满变化的当下,固守旧有的思维模式是多么的危险。阅读的过程中,我感觉自己仿佛置身于一个巨大的迷宫,作者就像一位睿智的向导,他并不直接指出出口,而是提供一些线索,让我们自己去摸索。他引导我去思考,那些我们曾经引以为傲的理性,在面对复杂现实时,是否会显得如此苍白。这本书让我重新审视了“知识”的含义,它不再是储存在大脑里的信息,而是对世界保持一种开放和批判的态度。我发现,很多时候,我们过于依赖现有的框架,而忽略了那些突破框架的可能性。这本书,就是鼓励我去打破框架,去拥抱那些未知和不确定,从而找到属于自己的那条路。

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不得不说,第一次接触这本书,就被它那种冷静甚至有些疏离的叙事风格吸引了。作者仿佛是一个置身事外、不动声色的观察者,用一种近乎考古学家的严谨,去解构那些我们习以为常的社会现象。他不会用煽情的语言去打动你,也不会用激烈的词汇去挑衅你,而是用一连串精心挑选的案例和数据,铺陈出一种令人不安的真相。我记得其中有一章,他详细剖析了一个看似普通的政治事件,但通过他的笔触,我看到了隐藏在表象之下的权力运作和利益纠葛,那种冷酷的理性让我不寒而栗。这本书更像是打开了一个我们从未深入探索过的房间,里面陈列着各种我们不愿正视的现实。它迫使我去思考,那些我们所相信的“常识”,究竟有多少是真正可靠的,有多少是被塑造出来的。阅读的过程,与其说是一种享受,不如说是一种挑战,一种对自己固有认知进行反复审视和推翻的过程。我发现,很多时候,我们习惯于活在自己构建的舒适区里,对那些可能动摇我们根基的真相选择性回避。而这本书,就是那个不请自来的闯入者,它敲响了警钟,让我们不得不面对那些我们本能抗拒的东西。

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这本书的阅读体验,就像一场深入骨髓的洗礼。作者的文字力量如同平静的海水,表面波澜不惊,却蕴含着巨大的能量。他没有炫技,没有华丽的辞藻,只有一种近乎残酷的坦诚,将这个时代的种种矛盾和荒谬,一丝不苟地呈现在读者面前。我特别喜欢他对于“集体无意识”的剖析,那种在我们不经意间就形成的共识,是如何悄无声息地塑造了我们的行为和思想。读完他关于某些社会现象的描述,我常常会陷入一种深深的沉默,不是因为词穷,而是因为内心的震动过于强烈,需要时间去消化。这本书最大的价值,在于它挑战了我们对“进步”和“文明”的简单理解。它让我们看到,在高速发展的背后,隐藏着多少被忽视的代价,多少被压抑的呼声。我曾经以为自己对这个世界已经有了相当的认知,但这本书彻底颠覆了我的想法。它让我意识到,很多时候,我们所见的,只是冰山一角,而真正的深层结构,却隐藏在冰面之下,等待着我们去勇敢地探索。

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not interested atm | 开头几页看了好几遍了。 还是没有坚持下去。可能是目前的认知到不了这个水准。对soros的经历和他在美国,欧洲,东南亚的影响力十分好奇。 非常期待有朝一日我达到能看完这本书的水平之时,我一定要写一篇论文 题为 “解读Soros”

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not interested atm | 开头几页看了好几遍了。 还是没有坚持下去。可能是目前的认知到不了这个水准。对soros的经历和他在美国,欧洲,东南亚的影响力十分好奇。 非常期待有朝一日我达到能看完这本书的水平之时,我一定要写一篇论文 题为 “解读Soros”

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这一本比《开放社会》简洁多了。老索这么大年龄了,近几年还在成长着,学无止境啊~

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这一本比《开放社会》简洁多了。老索这么大年龄了,近几年还在成长着,学无止境啊~

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not interested atm | 开头几页看了好几遍了。 还是没有坚持下去。可能是目前的认知到不了这个水准。对soros的经历和他在美国,欧洲,东南亚的影响力十分好奇。 非常期待有朝一日我达到能看完这本书的水平之时,我一定要写一篇论文 题为 “解读Soros”

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