具体描述
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball.
In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction.
We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.
作者简介
目录信息
i. Introduction/Mini-Summary
PART I: THE TROUBLE WITH PREDICTIONS: WHY SO MANY PREDICTIONS FAIL (AS SEEN THROUGH THE EYES OF THE ECONOMY)
1. The Trouble with Predicting the Economy
2. The Complicating Factors
A Brief Digression into the Field of Meteorology (A Bright Spot in the World of Forecasting)
3. The Statistical Solution (and its Problems)
4. Biased Thinking
5. A Case Study in Failed Prediction-Making: The Great Recession
a. Endless Optimism in the Price of Real Estate
b. The Folly of the Ratings Agencies
c. Leveraged to High Heaven
d. The Government’s Failed Forecast of the Great Recession
e. Not Everyone Got the Great Recession Wrong (A Prelude to Part II)
PART II: TOWARDS BETTER PREDICTION-MAKING
Section 1: Strategies to Help Us with Our Predictions
6. The Bayesian Approach
7. Hedgehogs and Foxes: Be Foxy
Section 2: Applying the Prediction Strategies to Different Fields
8. Predicting the Stock Market
9. Predicting Climate Change
10. Predicting Terrorism
11. Conclusion
· · · · · · (收起)
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