具体描述
To identify the economic stars of the future we should abandon the habit of extrapolating from the recent past and lumping wildly diverse countries together. We need to remember that sustained economic success is a rare phenomenon. As an era of easy money and easy growth comes to a close, China in particular will cool down. Other major players including Brazil, Russia, and India face their own daunting challenges and inflated expectations. The new "breakout nations" will probably spring from the margins, even from the shadows. Ruchir Sharma, one of the world s largest investors in emerging markets for Morgan Stanley, here identifies which are most likely to leap ahead and why. After two decades spent traveling the globe tracking the progress of developing countries, Sharma has produced a book full of surprises: why the overpriced cocktails in Rio are a sign of revival in Detroit; how the threat of the "population bomb" came to be seen as a competitive advantage; how an industrial revolution in Asia is redefining what manufacturing can do for a modern economy; and how the coming shakeout in the big emerging markets could shift the spotlight back to the West, especially American technology and German manufacturing. What emerges is a clear picture of the shifting balance of global economic power and how it plays out for emerging nations and for the West. In a captivating exploration studded with vignettes, Sharma reveals his rules on how to spot economic success stories. Breakout Nations is a rollicking education for anyone looking to understand where the future will happen.
作者简介
鲁奇尔·夏尔马
很少有作者能够同时具备广阔的视角与丰富的国别知识，所以无法就中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥、土耳其等国的发展写出一部权威著作，但夏尔马做到了。
他是美国摩根士丹利公司新兴市场股票业务负责人，长期投资全球40多个中低收入国家，积累了大量一线检验自己投资实践的想法，并以独特的视角着眼于公司及行业发展、各国宏观经济。他还长期担任美国《新闻周刊》、《华尔街日报》专栏作家，定期跟踪全球经济发展趋势。
目录信息
读后感
体制中不存在魔力，民主政体并不能保证经济成功。重要的不是命令，而是发布命令的人。在经济成功方面，政治体制的重要性远比不上领导人的动力和远见。 中国的消费并未受到压制，在过去30年里，中国消费支出以年均9%的速度增长。形成这种错觉的可能原因是投资比消费增长得更快。...
评分与其说这本书是寻找下一个经济奇迹的指导，不如说它是“如何在投资新兴市场时避开雷区”的一个checklist——作者结合自身的观察与体会，罗列并解释了新兴市场发展受阻各自的原因，可谓开卷有益。每个国家都有各自的问题，比如宗教冲突、种族歧视、地理限制等等，却不乏共通之处...
评分一两年前，若是有人唱衰“金砖国家”的经济表现，毋庸反驳，动辄超过5%的GDP增长也胜过万语千言。彼时新兴市场尚是全球增长的头雁，纵然身负伤痕，却毫无折翼之忧。相形之下，美国固然体量庞大，却似蹒跚的巨禽，不便振翅。至于多数欧洲国家，更是泥足深陷，难以自拔。 孰料光...
评分1.旅行和实地考察的意义 在过去的15年里，我通常每个月都会在某个新兴市场花上一周的时间，深入其中，与当地的各色人等会面，在该国旅行，通常是公路旅行。如同作家阿道斯.赫胥黎所言：旅行就是去发现原来我们关于其他国家的观点都是错误的。 为了对新兴市场得到一个真正全面...
评分《一炮走红的国家》的作者夏尔马是美国摩根斯丹利新兴市场股票业务负责人，对于中低收入国家的宏观经济与投资策略有很深的洞察力。正如此书封皮上所说“真正的生意人，没有什么比投资一个国家更具有战略意义的事了”。这使我想起了先秦时代的吕布韦“奇货可居”的典故，只不过...
用户评价
emerging market的教材
评分contradictory arguments. OK evidence.
评分对中国消费，投资，人口，能源需求，世界影响力的分析相当高明。另外掷地有声的评论还有韩国，印尼，捷克波兰，日本美国，尼日利亚。
评分It's no more reasonable to see every emerging market as BRICS, and spend money in commodity-rich countries crazily, like investors did in the past two decades. All countries can be a breakout nation, as long as they get the basic principles right. When there's no tailwind, everyone has to row.
评分挺务实的分析。反而不象其他惊世骇俗的言论容易引发关注吧。
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