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The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.

In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.

Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests—regional, sectoral, and class—of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.

Bruce Gilley is an assistant professor of political science at Portland State University. He serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Democracy and is the author of Tiger on the Brink: Jiang Zemin, China’s New Elite, Model Rebels: The Rise and Fall of China’s Richest Village, and, with Andrew J. Nathan, China’s New Rulers: The Secret Files. He lived in China and Hong Kong for more than a decade, working as a journalist for the Far Eastern Economic Review Magazine.

Introduction
Part 1: Crisis
Democracy and China
Democracy's Spread
The Struggle for Democracy ( China's Democratic Potential
Broken Promises
The Republican Failure
Mao's China
Post-Mao Reforms
The Last Days of Dictatorship
The Torment of CCP Rule
The PRC System
A Metaphor for Transition
State and Society
Sustaining Economic Growth
The Social Malaise
A Troubled Diplomacy
Political Dysfunction
Resources for Change
Tocqueville's Paradox
The Privatization of Economic Life
New Ideas
New Societies
Democratic Diplomacy and US Policy
Border Effects and Global Civil Society
Political Decompression
Part II: Transition
Breakdown and Mobilization
Predicting Change
Gradual Democracy?
Metastatic Crisis
Popular Mobilization
Violence
Last Ditchism
Collapse?
The Eve of Transition
Democratic Breakthrough
Extrication or Overthrow?
The Heroes of Retreat
The Pact
Ending the PRC
The Immediate
The Interim Regime
Sudden Politicization
International Reaction
Part III: Consolidation
The Political Challenge
Will Democracy Fail?
Legacies and Choices
New Institutions
Federalism
Secession
The First Election
Rights and Interests
Rights: Threats and Safeguards
Towards Consolidation
Political Life
Local Politics and Hong Kong
Refurbishing Economic and Social Life
The Struggle for Interests
Growth and Development
Social Welfare
Regional Interests
A Free Society
Dealing With History
A Changed International Role
Democratic Peace
Transitional Diplomacy
Relations With the U.S.
Relations with Asia
Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang
Conclusion
References
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