Fooled by Randomness

Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025

出版者:Penguin
作者:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
出品人:
页数:368
译者:
出版时间:2007-5
价格:USD 15.95
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9780141031484
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 统计学
  • 英文原版
  • 思维
  • 英文原著
  • 英文
  • stochastics
  • 心理学
  • 思想
  • 随机性
  • 投资
  • 心理学
  • 决策
  • 概率
  • 不确定性
  • 行为经济学
  • 市场
  • 认知偏差
  • 运气
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具体描述

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

作者简介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.

目录信息

Pt. I Solon's warning
1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5
2 A bizarre accounting method 22
3 A mathematical meditation on history 43
4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70
5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? 79
6 Skewness and asymmetry 97
7 The problem of induction 116
Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters
8 Too many millionaires next door 139
9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg 149
10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life 172
11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind 182
Pt. III Wax in my ears
12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box 226
13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism 234
14 Bacchus abandons antony 245
Epilogue : Solon told you so 250
Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower 253
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读后感

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西方哲学史上被公认为第一位哲学家的希腊人泰勒斯,原本是一个商人,但是他却不好好挣钱,总是研究些没有用的事情。有一天,泰勒斯走在旷野间,抬头看着星空,结果不防脚下一个坑,掉进坑里摔个半死。于是希腊人笑话说,哲学家都是些没用的人。   泰勒斯很给哲...  

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学数理统计的孩子表示对这种吹水耍嘴皮子的书欣赏不能。。。。orz。。

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小概率事件隐含大趋势

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小概率事件隐含大趋势

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最喜欢里面的小故事

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小概率事件隐含大趋势

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