具体描述
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
作者简介
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.
目录信息
1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5
2 A bizarre accounting method 22
3 A mathematical meditation on history 43
4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70
5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? 79
6 Skewness and asymmetry 97
7 The problem of induction 116
Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters
8 Too many millionaires next door 139
9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg 149
10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life 172
11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind 182
Pt. III Wax in my ears
12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box 226
13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism 234
14 Bacchus abandons antony 245
Epilogue : Solon told you so 250
Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower 253
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读后感
这本书用简单的统计学概念有趣地解释了许多常见的投资现象，其中最为核心的，是收益的不对称与决策的非理性对长期投资的种种影响。在某种意义上，这些讨论不仅对投资客有价值，也具有极强的哲学含义，可以在生活中的方方面面得到印证。 书中的一个核心问题是普遍存在的收益不...
评分这本书可以带来清醒。 纵观全书，我觉得主要讲的就是人往往被随机性所愚弄，根据以往或现在发生的事实归纳推断出结论，并以为这是很正确的，其实却忽略了那概率中未发生的事实，而随着时间的推移，那些事实很可能就发生了。对于交易员来说，就是相信自己归纳总结出来的方法已经...
评分 评分西方哲学史上被公认为第一位哲学家的希腊人泰勒斯，原本是一个商人，但是他却不好好挣钱，总是研究些没有用的事情。有一天，泰勒斯走在旷野间，抬头看着星空，结果不防脚下一个坑，掉进坑里摔个半死。于是希腊人笑话说，哲学家都是些没用的人。 泰勒斯很给哲...
用户评价
最喜欢里面的小故事
评分几乎没有一章是废话，阅读还不枯燥。这是2014年读过最好的书。它解释股价是随机性？那么多的股神？为什么有些人能预测等等。我真的喜欢这本书！
评分小概率事件隐含大趋势
评分几乎没有一章是废话，阅读还不枯燥。这是2014年读过最好的书。它解释股价是随机性？那么多的股神？为什么有些人能预测等等。我真的喜欢这本书！
评分小概率事件隐含大趋势
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