It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.
The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.
Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
具體描述
讀後感
評分
評分
評分
評分
用戶評價
霍布斯將人刻畫為肉體、激情、經驗以及理性。經濟學用偏好代替激情，以貝葉斯概率描繪經驗，憑藉理性保持顯示偏好下的行為一緻性，以此來模擬肉體所展現的一係列行為。
评分Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
评分霍布斯將人刻畫為肉體、激情、經驗以及理性。經濟學用偏好代替激情，以貝葉斯概率描繪經驗，憑藉理性保持顯示偏好下的行為一緻性，以此來模擬肉體所展現的一係列行為。
评分Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
评分Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
相關圖書
本站所有內容均為互聯網搜索引擎提供的公開搜索信息，本站不存儲任何數據與內容，任何內容與數據均與本站無關，如有需要請聯繫相關搜索引擎包括但不限於百度，google,bing,sogou 等
© 2025 book.quotespace.org All Rights Reserved. 小美書屋 版权所有