圖書標籤: 經濟學 日本 經濟 金融 宏觀經濟 經濟史 經濟危機 日本經濟
发表于2024-12-23
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
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Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.
辜朝明,日本首屈一指的證券公司——野村證券旗下的研究機構野村綜閤研究所的首席經濟學傢,連續近10年被日本資本和金融市場人士選為最受信賴的經濟學傢之一,並為日本曆屆首相就如何應對日本經濟與銀行問題提供谘詢。
進入野村證券之前,他作為經濟學傢任職於紐約聯邦儲備銀行,獲得過美國聯邦儲備委員會理事會博士會員的榮譽。他著述良多,同時也是早稻田大學客座教授,2001年被美國商業經濟學會授予艾布拉姆遜奬。他同時還是“商業周刊在綫”的專欄作傢以及日本內閣防務戰略會議的唯一一位非日本籍委員。
神作
評分論點非常清晰。Asset decline causes asset < liabilities, forcing companies to pay down debt rather than borrow. During balance sheet recession, monetary policy will be counterproductive and the government has to embark on fiscal policy. 不足之處有二:1. 後幾章有些囉嗦瞭;2. 沒有講明白政府要如何在經濟復蘇後減少債務。
評分I have read and researched extensively in the field of Macro Economics. What I have in mind is to have a framework to integrate elements concerning real economy and financial markets, designs of monetary and financial hierarchy, global money flow, roles of different currencies, and impacts on risk premiums by various monetary and fiscal policies, e
評分神作
評分野村綜閤研究所(Nomura Research Institute)的辜朝明(Richard Koo)的一本睿智之作。在書中,他解釋瞭不斷下跌的資産價格和負債率高企如何聯手迫使私營部門停止藉貸,而急於清償債務。政府不可避免的成為最後的藉款人和消費者。
试图对中国的经济危机多一点了解,找些国外的危机史看看。跟中国最相似的,是90年代的日本,顺差,高储蓄率,坚挺的货币,利率降到0。辜朝明,野村研究所的首席经济学家,对那段历史有相当的发言权。 该书的核心理论是“资产负债表衰退”,由于资产价格泡沫的破灭,使得大...
評分从“资产负债表”衰退角度解读美国大萧条、日本消失20年和美国次贷危机的一本很好的科普读物~ 1 更深入的解读了“流动性陷阱”的原因。因为资产泡沫破灭导致私人部门的资产减少,从而使企业“技术性破产”,企业目标由追求利润最大化转向偿还负债。在此情况下,借贷需求衰减导...
評分辜朝明提出了“资产负债表衰退”这个概念,并将日本衰退归纳为一个循环周期。 1.相比纯理性的利润最大化,在资不抵债的状况下会从根本上改变企业或个人的行为目标,转变为负债最小化,这种微观的正确行为,如果无数企业和个人加以执行,就会形成合成谬误,导致大家都陷入资产负...
評分除了1929年那次大衰退,上世纪与之最接近的可以算90年代日本的金融泡沫破裂。野村证券的辜朝明通篇提出的唯一观点:经济周期分为阴和阳两个阶段,中国人看了会比较亲切,在阳的阶段,企业以利润最大化为目的;在阴的阶段,企业以负债最小化为目的。货币政策在阳的阶段是有效用...
評分作者提出了“资产负债表衰退”和“企业以负债最小化”的概念,并且对90年后日本衰退进行了分析,肯定了财政政策的有效性。整本数观点新颖,逻辑严密,值得一读。
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024