图书标签: 经济学 日本 经济 金融 宏观经济 经济史 经济危机 日本经济
发表于2024-11-24
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
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Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.
辜朝明,日本首屈一指的证券公司——野村证券旗下的研究机构野村综合研究所的首席经济学家,连续近10年被日本资本和金融市场人士选为最受信赖的经济学家之一,并为日本历届首相就如何应对日本经济与银行问题提供咨询。
进入野村证券之前,他作为经济学家任职于纽约联邦储备银行,获得过美国联邦储备委员会理事会博士会员的荣誉。他著述良多,同时也是早稻田大学客座教授,2001年被美国商业经济学会授予艾布拉姆逊奖。他同时还是“商业周刊在线”的专栏作家以及日本内阁防务战略会议的唯一一位非日本籍委员。
想法不错,太啰嗦了。
评分感觉这个论点只适用于日本
评分野村综合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)的辜朝明(Richard Koo)的一本睿智之作。在书中,他解释了不断下跌的资产价格和负债率高企如何联手迫使私营部门停止借贷,而急于清偿债务。政府不可避免的成为最后的借款人和消费者。
评分神作
评分独特的视角,聚焦于资产负债表领域,偿债优先,导致利率很低时,企业仍不借贷(债务最小化而非利润最大化)。独特的阴、阳两级的分析框架,“阴”中财政要刺激,“阳”要相反。和伯南克的货币理论dominates all某种程度上背道而驰。
有很多启发。目前中国有能力说服银行业不顾自身安危,不采取平衡资产负债表的方式,无效率的扩张信贷规模。但企业和居民的借贷意愿下降情况下,货币需求减弱,这种扩大货币供应的方式是否能够奏效,值得观察。如果中国发生“资产负债表衰退”,降息也不能带来经济的复苏。 但...
评分 评分作者提出了“资产负债表衰退”和“企业以负债最小化”的概念,并且对90年后日本衰退进行了分析,肯定了财政政策的有效性。整本数观点新颖,逻辑严密,值得一读。
评分从“资产负债表”衰退角度解读美国大萧条、日本消失20年和美国次贷危机的一本很好的科普读物~ 1 更深入的解读了“流动性陷阱”的原因。因为资产泡沫破灭导致私人部门的资产减少,从而使企业“技术性破产”,企业目标由追求利润最大化转向偿还负债。在此情况下,借贷需求衰减导...
评分除了1929年那次大衰退,上世纪与之最接近的可以算90年代日本的金融泡沫破裂。野村证券的辜朝明通篇提出的唯一观点:经济周期分为阴和阳两个阶段,中国人看了会比较亲切,在阳的阶段,企业以利润最大化为目的;在阴的阶段,企业以负债最小化为目的。货币政策在阳的阶段是有效用...
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024