In the second half of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an event of major historic and global dimensions, yet this strategic transformation of international relations took the entire world totally by suprise - despite the fact that the West saw in the Communist power an ideological foe and a major military threat. During the 1980s Western intelligence services spent about USD40 billion every year, most of it to monitor the Soviet Union and its satellites. Yet all of them, without exception, were taken by surprise when the red empire crumbled. The American CIA, Britain's MI-6, Germany's BND and the French DGSE all failed to comprehend that the Soviet Union was approaching the end of its imperial existence. A handful of honest intelligence professionals who identified the signs of weakness and distress were shunted aside. The authors of this book interviewed dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, most of them in the United States, some in Europe, the Soviet Union and Israel. The interviewees included high ranking government officials, academics and journalists, but mostly intelligence personnel. All admitted having been caught off guard, but differed over the reasons for their surprise, and who was responsible for it.
David Arbel, is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer. Ran Edelist is a journalist and author.
这本书用大量事例说明,即便是受过优良教育,信息足够的西方领导人,在情报机构送来的客观事实面前,往往也只相信自己愿意相信的,或者自己的直观感受;情报机构的领导人往往也是这么对自己下属的。这种心态又直接反作用于情报机构里的下属给领导送的报告,以及情报给政治家送...
評分这本书用大量事例说明,即便是受过优良教育,信息足够的西方领导人,在情报机构送来的客观事实面前,往往也只相信自己愿意相信的,或者自己的直观感受;情报机构的领导人往往也是这么对自己下属的。这种心态又直接反作用于情报机构里的下属给领导送的报告,以及情报给政治家送...
評分阅读本书好像是在政客和情报官员的关系迷雾中漫步,其相识的分析不仅具备学术性,而且极富故事性,可以使普通读者了解冷战时期世界是如何变动的。其实这个故事挺可悲的,清包机构庞大臃肿,垄断专权,资源丰富,却未能遇见历史转折点的到来。这是近代历史上情报机构最明显的失败。
評分苏联解体既有苏联内容的原因也有西方势力的作用。一件事的发生必然有其内因和外因,内因的是赫鲁晓夫的改革政策,外因是西方势力的不断渗透。而西方是如何渗透的,就是我们要把握的关键。本书作者进行了大量采访,感觉就像是与完成任务的战士在对话一样。所以有必要了解西方情...
評分“每一个受访者都毫不犹豫地承认苏联崩溃让他们吃了一惊,只是每个人对于这种毫无察觉给出的缘由却都互有不同。”这一点也让我很吃惊,一个重大的历史事件,也许往往并不能依靠分析研究,预测出准确形态。作者认为,当历史处于转折点时,运转的情报收集机制再复杂精巧,洞察转...
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