Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods (Cairoli Lectures) pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026
- economics
- finance
- Finance
- Economics
- Global Imbalances
- Bretton Woods
- International Finance
- Economic History
- Monetary Policy
- Exchange Rates
- Financial Stability
- Global Economy
- Comparative Economics
- Political Economy
具体描述
In Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, Barry Eichengreen takes issue with the argument that today's international financial system is largely analogous to the Bretton Woods System of the period 1958 to 1973. Then, as now, it has been argued, the United States ran balance of payment deficits, provided international reserves to other countries, and acted as export market of last resort for the rest of the world. Then, as now, the story continues, other countries were reluctant to revalue their currencies for fear of seeing their export-led growth slow and suffering capital losses on their foreign reserves. Eichengreen argues in response that the power of historical analogy lies not just in finding parallels but in highlighting differences, and he finds important differences in the structure of the world economy today. Such differences, he concludes, mean that the current constellation of exchange rates and payments imbalances is unlikely to last as long as the original Bretton Woods System.Two of the most salient differences are the twin deficits and low savings rate of the United States, which do not augur well for the sustainability of the country's international position. Such differences, he concludes, mean that the current constellation of exchange rates and payments imbalances is unlikely to last as long as the original Bretton Woods System.After identifying these differences, Eichengreen looks in detail at the Gold Pool, the mechanism through which European central banks sought to support the dollar in the 1960s. He shows that the Pool was fragile and short lived, which does not bode well for collective efforts on the part of Asian central banks to restrain reserve diversification and support the dollar today. He studies Japan's exit from its dollar peg in 1971, drawing lessons for China's transition to greater exchange rate flexibility. And he considers the history of reserve currency competition, asking if it has lessons for whether the dollar is destined to lose its standing as preeminent international currency to the euro or even the Chinese renminbi.
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这本书的开篇就带给我一种扑面而来的历史厚重感，仿佛一下子被拉回到了那个动荡而充满变革的时代。作者的叙事节奏把握得相当到位，既有宏观层面的经济理论梳理，又不乏对关键历史事件的细致描绘。我尤其欣赏其在剖析布雷顿森林体系瓦解深层原因时的那种冷静和批判性。他没有简单地将责任归咎于某一方，而是细致地展示了各国利益的冲突、政策的博弈以及结构性失衡是如何一步步将那个看似坚固的国际货币体系推向悬崖的。阅读过程中，我时常需要停下来，思考那些看似陈旧的教训在当今全球经济格局中是如何以新的面貌重现的。文字的编排非常精妙，专业术语的解释穿插得恰到好处，使得即便是对国际金融史不太熟悉的读者，也能逐步建立起清晰的脉络。整体而言，这是一种深入骨髓的、对历史教训的深刻反思，而非仅仅是枯燥的学术回顾。
评分我非常喜欢作者在描述那些关键人物决策时的那种侧面描写。虽然全书的主线是宏大的经济结构分析，但那些在幕后推动历史进程的各国央行行长、财政部长们的焦虑、挣扎和最终的妥协，都被刻画得栩栩如生。这种“以人为本”的历史视角，为冰冷的经济模型注入了一股人性化的温度。举例来说，关于特定国家在特定历史节点上所面临的国内政治压力与国际经济义务之间的撕扯，作者的描述简直可以作为政治经济学的经典案例。它提醒着我们，无论理论模型多么完美，最终的执行者都是受制于自身国情和政治局限的人类。这种洞察力，使得这本书的价值超越了纯粹的经济学范畴，触及了政治学、历史学乃至国际关系学的交叉地带，读来让人心潮澎湃，对历史的复杂性有了更深的敬畏。
评分坦白说，这本书的阅读过程需要投入大量的精力，它绝非茶余饭后的消遣之作。但正因如此，它带给读者的满足感也更为深厚。作者在阐释复杂概念时所采用的精确而富有节奏感的语言，使得即便是最晦涩的金融机制，也仿佛被一层薄雾轻轻拂去，露出了清晰的骨架。我特别留意到，作者在引用历史资料和学术观点时表现出的审慎态度，每一个论断背后都有充分的论据支撑，这极大地增强了文本的说服力。对于那些希望真正掌握国际经济史核心脉络，而不是仅仅停留在表面知识的读者而言，这本书提供了一个近乎完美的知识架构。它就像一张高清的地图，指引我们穿越迷雾重重的历史长河，抵达对全球经济权力转移和金融稳定本质的深刻理解。
评分这本书的行文风格可以说是极其鲜明，带着一种近乎“学者式的偏执”去深挖每一个数据背后的故事。不同于市面上那些追求通俗易懂、大量使用比喻的经济读物，作者似乎更倾向于构建一个严密无缝的逻辑链条。每一章的过渡都像是在精密仪器中进行部件的替换和校准，逻辑的严谨性令人赞叹。我常常觉得，这不仅仅是在阅读一篇论述，更像是在参与一场由作者主导的、高强度的智力辩论。他对于“不平衡”这一核心概念的界定和量化尝试，尤其引人注目。那种试图用精确的数字语言去捕捉复杂社会经济现象的努力，虽然阅读起来需要更高的专注度，但一旦理解了作者的逻辑框架，便豁然开朗。对于那些寻求理论深度而非表面泛泛之谈的读者来说，这无疑是一份极其扎实的学术盛宴。
评分这本书的结构安排可以说是教科书级别的典范。作者似乎深谙如何引导读者的注意力。从对战后初期国际经济秩序建立的背景回顾开始，如同搭建地基，然后层层递进，逐步引入那些导致体系内部张力积累的关键变量。最精彩的部分在于他对“失衡”的动态追踪，如何从小问题逐渐演变成结构性危机，其中的反馈机制被解析得淋漓尽致。我个人的阅读体验是，它迫使我跳出了线性思维的桎梏。很多时候，我们习惯于将历史视为一系列孤立的事件，但这本书却成功地展示了一种循环往复的模式，即早期的解决方案往往会内含未来危机的种子。这种对历史周期性的深刻揭示，提供了宝贵的警示意义，让人在理解过去的同时，不得不审视当下世界经济运行的底层逻辑是否也潜藏着类似的“定时炸弹”。
评分It's a bit hard to read，although it's a lecture. Eichengreen concludes the lessons from the history of international financial system ，especially the exchange rate regime of Japan and the success of dollar as a reserve currency worldwide. Then he provides some advices for China. However，many discussions in this book is no more than a platitude.
评分It's a bit hard to read，although it's a lecture. Eichengreen concludes the lessons from the history of international financial system ，especially the exchange rate regime of Japan and the success of dollar as a reserve currency worldwide. Then he provides some advices for China. However，many discussions in this book is no more than a platitude.
评分It's a bit hard to read，although it's a lecture. Eichengreen concludes the lessons from the history of international financial system ，especially the exchange rate regime of Japan and the success of dollar as a reserve currency worldwide. Then he provides some advices for China. However，many discussions in this book is no more than a platitude.
评分It's a bit hard to read，although it's a lecture. Eichengreen concludes the lessons from the history of international financial system ，especially the exchange rate regime of Japan and the success of dollar as a reserve currency worldwide. Then he provides some advices for China. However，many discussions in this book is no more than a platitude.
评分It's a bit hard to read，although it's a lecture. Eichengreen concludes the lessons from the history of international financial system ，especially the exchange rate regime of Japan and the success of dollar as a reserve currency worldwide. Then he provides some advices for China. However，many discussions in this book is no more than a platitude.
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