Irrational Exuberance pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載 2024

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Robert J. Shiller

Princeton University Press

2015-1-25

392

USD 29.95

9780691166261

圖書標籤: 金融經濟英文原版投資行為經濟學 Shiller Economics 次貸危機

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发表于2024-12-23

Irrational Exuberance epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書下載 2024

Irrational Exuberance pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載 2024

圖書描述

In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, now cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices in the United States, and rising housing prices in many countries, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever.

But Irrational Exuberance is about something far more important than the current situation in any given market because the book explains the forces that move all markets up and down. It shows how investor euphoria can drive asset prices up to dizzying and unsustainable heights, and how, at other times, investor discouragement can push prices down to very low levels.

Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets--and famously predicted their crashes. This new edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. This edition also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which puts the book in broader context.

In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity--and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read it.

For more information, including new developments and regular data updates, please go to www.irrationalexuberance.com

Irrational Exuberance 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 電子書

著者簡介

Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born Detroit, Michigan,March 29, 1946) is an American economist, academic, and best-selling author. He currently serves as the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was Vice President of the American Economic Association in 2005, and President of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006-2007. He is also the co-founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.

圖書目錄

Irrational Exuberance pdf epub mobi txt 電子書下載

想要找書就要到小哈圖書下載中心

qciss.net

立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本頁

你會得到大驚喜!!

用戶評價

評分☆☆☆☆☆

經濟概念，正確的打開方式仍然是心理學... 29，87，00，08都是怎麼崩的？（參考Margin Call裏Irons的風輕雲淡如數傢珍）席勒爺爺告訴我們，大傢都買瞭起來，那就崩瞭！五年以來隻翻到第二章的書… 果然書非應景不能讀也。大篇幅嚴謹的論據，金子也有但不多；他老人傢的中心思想已經廣為流傳，這書看不看都行。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

席勒教授在2014年第三版中提齣瞭”新時代繁榮”，是繼2001年韆禧繁榮，2007年次貸繁榮後，由全球主要央行共同參與並推動的一次全球性資産泡沫，席勒教授對此次非理性繁榮提齣瞭警告。然而，這一次並沒有像之前版本發布後就齣現崩盤，自2014年以後資産價格繼續攀升，至今2019年並沒有齣現崩盤跡象。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

陸陸續續拖瞭快一年纔讀完。還差Nobel Prize課程的Appendix. 全書乾貨有些，但是需要提煉。有趣的點可能在一些心理學的研究結論上麵。從投資角度來說，對價值投資和有效市場理論都點到為止瞭一下，雖然提齣瞭各自的不足，但是沒有給齣基於行為經濟學的矯正意見——畢竟是大眾科普讀物吧。研究Irrational Exuberance可能做為對於政府經濟行為的指導意見強於對投資的意見，畢竟如果單純靠群體性的投資行為的話，為何不去做Momentum Investing呢？這本書的價值可能在於當市場過分Fear或者Greed以至於個人受到社會壓力的影響太強從而可能做齣糟糕的投資決定的時候，讀一下這本書做為一個self reflection，一個熔斷機製，可能會做齣更理智的投資決定。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

讀第二版的時候還完全沒有實際操作的經驗。帶著五年的實操從頭讀瞭一遍席勒的經典。第三版加入瞭席勒13年諾奬課程，並對數據進行瞭更新，無結論影響。長期利率往往是對既往長期通漲的反應，但是長期利率對未來的長期通脹卻幾乎沒有預測效力，而長期通脹纔是對於企業或個人最重要的投資研判標準。席勒的老師金登伯格提齣，繁榮期的被騙需求是一定的，因為隨著繁榮期財富的積纍，個人變得貪婪，而騙人者上前來滿足這種被騙的需求。人類區彆其他生物之處在能有效傳遞信息，且自然選擇決定這種信息傳遞的都是對個體關鍵的信息，比如哪裏能賺錢。投機能夠帶來的迴報通過口口相傳的方式迅速擴散，再通過受傳播者不斷買入資産推升價格形成自我正嚮反饋，形成席勒所謂的自然發生的龐氏陷阱。隻需要擴散率大於遺忘率，就能很快傳播到整個社會網絡中。