Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical and philosophical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder.
He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spend several years as an academic researcher ( Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering, Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst).
He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published close to 55 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from Statistical Physics to International affairs. The Incerto has more than 150 translations in 39 languages.
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)
A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times
"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ
- 金融
- 思维
- 经济
- 投资
- randomness
- 思维工具
- finance
- economics
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
具体描述
读后感
我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大，或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料，未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人，我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史（denigration of history）：因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得，发生在别人身上的事情，不见得会发生...
评分我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大，或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料，未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人，我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史（denigration of history）：因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得，发生在别人身上的事情，不见得会发生...
评分 评分中学大学一直踢球，但先天身体素质不好，速度不快，身材不高，两个冲刺就喘，腿上没有发达的肌肉，发个角球到禁区都成问题。 这样的人如何在球队滥竽充数，是一个高深的技巧。今天把我中学校队、大学系队，毕业多年参加业余足球联赛还能时而蒙进球的秘籍公开，不是有本书叫《生...
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用户评价
碎片时间读本，断断续续看了好久啊，感觉非常小聪明，到处都是小聪明，但到处又教人别把自己的聪明当回事。不知道为什么每次看都觉得作者很矛盾。可能是我太不商科太不律所了，又一本朋友的全五星推荐被我糟蹋了。
评分看过几本Taleb的书之后这本就显得没太多新意了。当鸡汤读读还是不错的。
评分整本书就是絮絮叨叨地在讲什么是期望。。。
评分看过几本Taleb的书之后这本就显得没太多新意了。当鸡汤读读还是不错的。
评分看过几本Taleb的书之后这本就显得没太多新意了。当鸡汤读读还是不错的。
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