Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical and philosophical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder.
He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spend several years as an academic researcher ( Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering, Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst).
He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published close to 55 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from Statistical Physics to International affairs. The Incerto has more than 150 translations in 39 languages.
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)
A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times
"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ
- 金融
- 思维
- 经济
- 投资
- randomness
- 思维工具
- finance
- economics
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
具体描述
读后感
这本书分成三部分： 第一部分是讲偏态，偶然事件。还谈了很多与概率相关的问题。 第二部分是讲存活着偏差，由于我们只看到了成功者，而因此形成了对机遇的歪曲看法。 第三部分是讲路径依赖的，人们过去做出的选择决定了他们现在及未来可能的选择。 三部分内容的划分是明确的，...
评分《随机致富的傻瓜》总体印象 这本书本来没有打算开始看的，不过周日去书店捧了一堆书回来路上老婆有点事情，我做在路边台阶上随手拿本书来翻看，当时又不能勾画东西，只好找本相对简单的，结果就拿到了这本。 这本书基本与致富无关，唯一引入这个词汇，只不过是因为作者是从事...
评分给四星是因为作者所推崇的“科学的可证伪性”，那一星的空白权当是尊重作者本意使之“科学化”了。还是Robert Shiller的金融市场课的参考书目。课听到一半倒是把书搜出来一口气一个通宵给看完了。颠覆啊！作者不相信投资组合那套，评价巴菲特的简朴作风“毫无必要”。这里探讨...
评分 评分呵呵，一年半没买闲书了，印象中上次破例是为了伍迪艾伦《门萨的娼妓》，口袋里只有25块，八折拿下定价25元的书，感觉竟像大大的赚了一笔。 这次在光合作用找教材，寻未果，但又被我不小心瞄到了这一本。这次的经验再次验证了边际效用递减的逆否命题~~~ 书名本是Fooled By Rand...
用户评价
看过几本Taleb的书之后这本就显得没太多新意了。当鸡汤读读还是不错的。
评分因为很同意这个观点：随机性和非理性在人类行为和经济活动中的常常起决定性作用。本文的基本出发点似乎就是这个。但畅销书就是喜欢拐弯抹角讲段子。虽然容易翻页，但啰里八嗦的说不到点子上，翻了大半本也看不到作者到底是要怎么处理这个随机性。
评分Taleb善于思考，不善于写作。他的爱好还包括deadlift。
评分三星半，更适合做金融行业的人。这是作者第一本，那时还未出名，感觉这书就是写来撒气的。前言写的很真挚好看，正文各种吐槽讽刺同行，常常看得我哭笑不得，仇真的很深。???? 正文节奏不好，而且个别案例矫枉过正。
评分整本书就是絮絮叨叨地在讲什么是期望。。。
相关图书
本站所有内容均为互联网搜索引擎提供的公开搜索信息，本站不存储任何数据与内容，任何内容与数据均与本站无关，如有需要请联系相关搜索引擎包括但不限于百度，google,bing,sogou 等
© 2025 book.quotespace.org All Rights Reserved. 小美书屋 版权所有