The ultimate guide to predicting winners and losers in high technology

Pip Coburn became famous for writing some of the liveliest reports on Wall Street. He quoted everyone from Machiavelli to HAL, Anaïs Nin to Yoda, Einstein to Gandhi. But along with the quirky writing, he consistently delivered sharp insights into technology trends and helped investors pick stocks with long-term potential.

After years of studying countless winners and losers, Coburn has come up with a simple idea that explains why some technologies become huge hits (iPods, DVD players, Netflix), but others never reach more than a tiny audience (Segways, video phones, tablet PCs). He says that people are only willing to change when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of trying something new.

In other words, technology demands a change in habits, and that's the leading cause of failure for countless cool inventions. Too many tech companies believe in “build it and they will come”— build something better and people will beat a path to your door. But, as Coburn shows, most potential users are afraid of new technologies, and they need a really great reason to change.

The Change Function is an irreverent look at how this pattern plays out in countless sectors, from computers to cell phones to digital TV recorders. It will be an invaluable book for people who create and invest in new technologies.

皮普．柯本 (Pip Coburn)

畢業於布朗大學以及賓州大學華頓商學院。現為「柯本創投」投資顧問公司 (Coburn Ventures) 創辦人，每週通常要撰寫三百餘份科技業的投資報告與市場變化報告。曾任投資公司「瑞銀投資研究」(UBS Investment Research) 科技事業部董事總經理兼全球科技策略師，並曾任紐約機構投資管理公司「林區梅爾」(Lynch & Mayer)資深副總裁。