From the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a book on how to benefit from disorder.
In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem, and his revelatory new book Antifragile offers a definitive solution: how to live in a world that is unpredicatable, chaotic, and full of shocks, and how to thrive during periods of disaster. Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. For what Taleb calls the 'antifragile' is beyond the merely robust; it benefits from shocks, uncertainty and stressors. Antifragile is about what to do when we don't understand. It is a new word because it is a new concept.
Many of the greatest breakthroughs in human endeavour come from the innovation by trial and error that is part of antifragility. And some of the best systems we know of, including natural selection and evolution, have antifragility at their heart. How did the disaster of the sinking of the Titanic bring us closer to safety? Why does the stress on bones make us stronger? Why should you write a resignation letter on your first day in the office? Why should we detest the lack of accountability at the heart of capitalism?
The most successful of us, the most daring and creative will take advantage of disorder and invent new, more powerful opportunities and advantages beyond our expectations.
Irreverent and ambitious, Antifragile provides a blueprint for how to live-and thrive-in a world we don't understand, and which is too uncertain for us to even try to predict. Taleb's message is revolutionary: what is not antifragile will surely perish.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a radical and paradoxical philosopher for our times.He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute.His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-three languages.Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent two decades as a trader before becoming a philosophical essayist and academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time either working in intense seclusion in his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity", that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand.
His works are grouped under the general title Incerto (latin for uncertainty), composed of a trilogy accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness) plus two addenda: a book of philosophical aphorisms (The Bed of Procrustes) and a freely available Technical Companion. Taleb's books have been published in thirty-three languages.
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
鸡汤与鸡精之间一定有区别,区别并不体现在作者的国籍、标题是否恶俗、词藻是否浮夸苍白,甚至内容本身是否已被用滥; 区别只体现在,宣扬某种理念的人,自己在现实生活中到底是个怎样的人:他是按照他所提倡的观念去生活的吗?他是否能在任何境遇下坚持自己的观念,并对这种行...
评分本书作者名气比较大,写过《黑天鹅》《随机漫步的傻瓜》等书,据称专门研究不确定度性。本书是他以前的书的内容的延续。 书中最核心的观点是把风险与收益的关系换个说法又说了一遍。许多事情发生的概率越小,发生后的收益或者损失越大。 我认为作者陷入了锤子定子模式,把已知...
评分一个玻璃杯美美地放在桌子上,当摔到地上的时候它会瞬间破碎,所以玻璃杯就是脆弱的;如果摔到地上的是一个塑料杯,它不会破碎而会在地上弹两下,所以塑料杯是强韧的;想象一下有种杯子,当摔到地下的时候,它非但没有破碎反而变成了两个杯子,这个时候它就是反脆弱的。 ...
评分如果说《Fooled by Randomness》是线性叙事,讨论的是随机性问题,《The Black Swan》讨论的是重复叙事,讨论的是肥尾效应,《The Bed of Procrustes》是随机叙事,讨论的是各种奇葩的人生哲学,那么畅销作家Nicholas Nassim Taleb的新书《Antifragile》则是集大成者。 《Anti...
评分文/ 《国家商业》,安然 预测工具,无法捕捉“黑天鹅” 在《黑天鹅》中,塔勒布认为,我们的世界充满最不可能发生但总是发生的事,因此我们必须学习如何由失序及混乱中获取利益,这也是他的新书主旨。 塔勒布目前任教于纽约大学理工学院(Polytechnic Ins...
这本书的书名似乎是《反脆弱》,但我手头拿着的却是另一本让我回味无穷的佳作。它不像某些理论著作那样枯燥乏味,反而以一种近乎哲思散文的笔触,探讨了人类如何在混乱、不确定性和压力中不仅生存下来,还能从中汲取力量、变得更强大。作者似乎对“随机性”有着一种近乎偏执的痴迷,他将我们习以为常的“风险”和“脆弱”概念彻底颠覆了。我印象最深的是书中对“冗余”的看法,这在追求效率最大化的现代社会中显得格格不入,但作者却用一系列生动的例子论证了,那些看似无用的备份、多余的库存,才是抵御黑天鹅事件的最后防线。阅读过程中,我忍不住停下来,反复琢磨那些关于钟形曲线和幂律分布的论述,它们不再是抽象的数学符号,而变成了理解世界运转的全新透镜。这本书迫使我去审视自己生活中的每一个选择——无论是投资策略、职业规划,还是人际关系的处理方式,都在提醒我:稳定才是最大的幻觉,拥抱波动,才是通往真正韧性的唯一路径。它不是教你如何避免失败,而是教你如何利用失败。
评分这本书的叙事风格极其独特,带着一种强烈的、近乎布道者的激情,让人难以抗拒地想要去跟随作者的思路探索那些反直觉的真理。它不像是一本标准的畅销书,更像是一份对现有世界观的颠覆性宣言。书中对“累积效应”的分析尤其令人震撼,它清晰地展示了微小的、持续的冲击如何在一个系统内部积累,最终导致灾难性的崩溃,而系统本身却浑然不觉。作者似乎在用一种近乎文学的笔法,解剖着我们这个时代最深层的焦虑——对确定性的盲目崇拜。我尤其喜欢它对“试错文化”的推崇,它认为那些能从错误中学习并自我修正的实体,才是真正能够长期存在的。这本书没有给我一剂“速效药”,它提供的更多是一种思维框架的重塑,让我学会用更宽广的视角去看待生活中的“不顺心”和“意外”,将它们视为进化的催化剂,而非必须规避的障碍。
评分这是一本需要“用双手去感受”的书,而不是仅仅用眼睛去扫过。它的力量不在于它说了什么新奇的理论,而在于它如何重新组织你已有的知识结构。作者在书中对“冗余的价值”和“过度干预的危害”进行了淋漓尽致的剖析,读到酣畅处,你会发现自己对许多社会现象的看法被彻底刷新了。比如,为什么有些看似野蛮生长的民间组织反而比精心设计的官僚机构更具生命力?这本书给出了一个强有力的解释:后者缺乏必要的“噪音”和“摩擦力”来刺激其进化。阅读过程中,我常常感到一种智力上的“兴奋感”,因为它揭示了那些隐藏在表象之下的运作规律。它不是一本安抚人心的书,它要求读者走出舒适区,主动去拥抱那些能让你“变硬”的经历。这本书的影响是潜移默化的,它像一个隐形的导师,在你做决策时,会不时地提醒你:“你是否给系统留出了‘犯错’的空间?”
评分这本书的阅读体验简直就像是一次智力上的攀登,每一次翻页都伴随着心智的拓展。我必须承认,一开始我对作者那近乎反主流的观点有些抵触,毕竟我们从小接受的教育都是趋利避害,是寻求确定性。然而,作者的论证逻辑极其严密,他巧妙地穿梭于历史、经济、医学甚至神话故事之间,将一个统一的、关于“反脆弱性”的框架强行植入读者的脑海。最让我印象深刻的是书中对于“专业化陷阱”的批判。在高度细分的现代职场中,我们为了提高效率而牺牲了知识的广度和适应性,一旦外部环境发生剧变,这种“优化”反而成了致命的弱点。这本书的语言风格非常鲜明,充满了挑衅性,它不提供简单的答案,而是提供一套更高级的提问方式。我花了大量时间去思考那些“可自我修复的系统”的例子,它们展现了一种内在的、无需外部干预的恢复力。读完后,我感觉自己对世界运作的底层代码有了更深刻的理解,那些曾经认为的“坏事”,现在看来或许是必要的磨砺。
评分说实话,这本关于“韧性与波动”的著作,远超出了我最初对一本商业或哲学书籍的预期。它的篇幅不短,但叙事节奏把握得极妙,总能在你快要被复杂的概念淹没时,抛出一个极具画面感的比喻,将你一下子拉回现实。我特别欣赏作者对“健身”和“免疫系统”的类比。我们都知道锻炼会导致肌肉撕裂(压力),而愈合过程会带来更强的肌肉(反脆弱)。这本书将这种生物学原理推广到了社会、经济和个人决策的方方面面。它提出了一个大胆的假设:我们应该主动地、适度地暴露在“微小的、可控的失败”之下,而不是躲在厚厚的安全气囊里。这种“负面反馈机制”的价值,在当今这个过度保护的环境中显得尤为珍贵。读完后,我开始有意识地去寻找那些能提供“脚踏实地的经验”而非“空洞理论”的机会,那种踏实感是任何理论模型都无法给予的。
评分又犯了西方著作的通病,一本书一个观点
评分他的黑天鹅大热时,读了,傻了,这书写的是什么水平啊?好了,这一本,还是一如既往的写的很烂,是真的读不下去
评分又犯了西方著作的通病,一本书一个观点
评分他的黑天鹅大热时,读了,傻了,这书写的是什么水平啊?好了,这一本,还是一如既往的写的很烂,是真的读不下去
评分又犯了西方著作的通病,一本书一个观点
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