On September 23, 1998, the boardroom of the New York Fed was a tense place. Around the table sat the heads of every major Wall Street bank, the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, and representatives from numerous European banks, each of whom had been summoned to discuss a highly unusual prospect: rescuing what had, until then, been the envy of them all, the extraordinarily successful bond-trading firm of Long-Term Capital Management. Roger Lowenstein's When Genius Failed is the gripping story of the Fed's unprecedented move, the incredible heights reached by LTCM, and the firm's eventual dramatic demise.
Lowenstein, a financial journalist and author of Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist, examines the personalities, academic experts, and professional relationships at LTCM and uncovers the layers of numbers behind its roller-coaster ride with the precision of a skilled surgeon. The fund's enigmatic founder, John Meriwether, spent almost 20 years at Salomon Brothers, where he formed its renowned Arbitrage Group by hiring academia's top financial economists. Though Meriwether left Salomon under a cloud of the SEC's wrath, he leapt into his next venture with ease and enticed most of his former Salomon hires--and eventually even David Mullins, the former vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve--to join him in starting a hedge fund that would beat all hedge funds.
LTCM began trading in 1994, after completing a road show that, despite the Ph.D.-touting partners' lack of social skills and their disdainful condescension of potential investors who couldn't rise to their intellectual level, netted a whopping $1.25 billion. The fund would seek to earn a tiny spread on thousands of trades, "as if it were vacuuming nickels that others couldn't see," in the words of one of its Nobel laureate partners, Myron Scholes. And nickels it found. In its first two years, LTCM earned $1.6 billion, profits that exceeded 40 percent even after the partners' hefty cuts. By the spring of 1996, it was holding $140 billion in assets. But the end was soon in sight, and Lowenstein's detailed account of each successively worse month of 1998, culminating in a disastrous August and the partners' subsequent panicked moves, is riveting.
The arbitrageur's world is a complicated one, and it might have served Lowenstein well to slow down and explain in greater detail the complex terms of the more exotic species of investment flora that cram the book's pages. However, much of the intrigue of the Long-Term story lies in its dizzying pace (not to mention the dizzying amounts of money won and lost in the fund's short lifespan). Lowenstein's smooth, conversational but equally urgent tone carries it along well. The book is a compelling read for those who've always wondered what lay behind the Fed's controversial involvement with the LTCM hedge-fund debacle. --S. Ketchum
Roger Lowenstein (born in 1954) is an American financial journalist and writer. He graduated from Cornell University and reported for the Wall Street Journal for more than a decade, including two years writing its Heard on the Street column, 1989 to 1991. Born in 1954, he is the son of Helen and Louis Lowenstein of Larchmont, N.Y. Lowenstein is married to Judith Slovin.
He is also a director of Sequoia Fund. His father, the late Louis Lowenstein, was an attorney and Columbia University law professor who wrote books and articles critical of the American financial industry.
Roger Lowenstein's latest book, America's Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve (The Penguin Press) was released on October 20, 2015.
He has three children and lives in Westfield, New Jersey.
1. 依靠模型但对交易的本质不理解 a. 风险在本质上是不可定价的 Black-Scholes等数理金融模型定价的是"波动性",无法定价不确定性,市场系统对不确定性的定价是发散的. b. 只能对标的统计特征稳定(波动性可大,但不确定性不能大)的系统保险,绝不可对不确定性保险。(保险的...
评分清明节三天都在读这本书,以中国人的方式悼念长期资本管理公司。内容无可挑剔,翻译的语言也不晦涩。一路读来,发现不少有趣的事情。 1、做人要仗义:在拯救ltcm的整个过程中,只有贝尔斯登袖手旁观,结果,10年后遭报应了。据说,当其股价在60美元的时候,大量的人放空他到30...
评分 评分这本书英文原版2000年就有了,中文版06年又重版了。但不知为什么这本书在豆瓣上没有,于是我就加上了,顺便再写点推荐的文字。 推荐这本书基于两种推荐:其一,这本书作为书写一段历史——一个公司和一群人的历史是成功的,非常好读,还把事情描述得很清楚,把枯燥的...
后人哀之而不鉴之,亦使后人而复哀后人也
评分就是看得太痛苦了……因为有deadline所以一直在拼死地看……毕竟看英文书的速度比不上看中文书啊……
评分其实挺多细节没有读懂的(汗颜...),不过关于LTCM的失败,有一点还是很有警醒作用的,即像对冲基金这种看似高端的金融产物,如果脱离了对社会各方面的了解,失败就成为了必然。Meriwether召集的精英们,从前美联储副主席到诺贝尔获奖者,可以说是一支让人叹为观止的强大队伍,可是他们败就败在目中无人。如果他们从数学公式里走出来,多了解基层的状况,也许他们就不会从98年俄罗斯违约这一事件开始一败涂地。
评分今年读过的最好的商业书籍,对LTCM的兴起与衰落进行了完整复盘。虽然作者很cynical,但既未为LTCM文过饰非,也没有落井下石地对他们进行不公正的道德指责,忠实记录了LTCM如何在成功投资后过于迷信自己的model而丢掉了谨慎,在贪婪和业绩压力下步入自己不熟悉的risk arbitrage领域投下重注,genius们的分歧、冲突,overuse the leverage on interest swaps,直到黑天鹅的出现导致credit spread飙升,市场走势和模型预测完全相反,满盘皆输,最终被高盛敲下了棺材上的最后一根钉子。
评分他们是很聪明,但却缺乏了一个常识:投资都是有风险的。他们承担了太高的风险了。
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