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In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the Phillips curve became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of today's top economists reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications.

The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy.

Contributors: Lawrence Ball, Ben S. Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Galí, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartosz Maćkowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian Rodney Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

About the Editors

Jeff Fuhrer is an economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Jane Little is an economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Yolanda Kodrzycki is an economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Giovanni Olivei is an economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Acknowledgments
Foreword
Paul A. Samuelson
1 The Phillips Curve in Historical Context
Jeff Fuhrer, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little and Giovanni P. Olivei 1
2 Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve
A Dialog on What We Have Learned
Robert M. Solow, John B. Taylor and N. Gregory Mankiw 69
3 Forecasting Inflation 99
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson 101
Comments
Adrian Rodney Pagan 187
Comments
Lucrezia Reichlin 195
4 The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve 205
A New Method for Estimating Time Variation in the NAIRU
William T. Dickens 207
Comments
Olivier Blanchard 231
Comments
Christopher A. Pissarides 237
5 Inflation Expectations 245
Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy
Christopher A. Sims 247
Comments
Michael T. Kiley 267
Comments
Athanasios Orphanides 281
6 Evidence on Price Determination 289
Implications of Microeconomic Price Data for Macroeconomic Models
Bartosz Maćkowiak and Frank Smets 291
Comments
Robert G. King 333
Comments
Virgiliu Midrigan 351
7 Is the Phillips Curve Vertical in the Long Run? 359
Hysteresis in Unemployment
Laurence Ball 361
Comments
V.V. Chari 383
Comments
Jordi Galí 395
8 Lessons for Central Bankers: A Panel Discussion 401
Israeli Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve
Stanley Fischer 403
Lessons for Central Bankers from a Phillips Curve Framework
Donald L. Kohn 415
The Phillips Curve and the European Central Bank
Jürgen Stark 427
Monetary Policy at the Riksbank and the Phillips Curve
Lars E.O. Svensson 433
9 The Phillips Curve Going Forward
What We Still Need to Learn 445
Outstanding Issues in the Analysis of Inflation
Ben S. Bernanke 447
Contributors
Author Index
Subject Index
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