Secular Cycles pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024


Secular Cycles

简体网页||繁体网页
Peter Turchin
Princeton University Press
2009-8-9
362
USD 52.00
Hardcover
9780691136967

图书标签: 历史  Complexity  Peter_Turchin  Dynamics  cliodynamics  History   


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发表于2024-11-23

Secular Cycles epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书 下载 2024

Secular Cycles epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书 下载 2024

Secular Cycles pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024



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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and, states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations - what the authors call secular cycles. "Secular Cycles" elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, "Secular Cycles" will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

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