具體描述
A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.
In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.
著者簡介
Ray Dalio is the founder and cochairman of Bridgewater Associates, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He is the author of Principles, Big Debt Crisis, and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. He lives with his family in Connecticut.
圖書目錄
讀後感
前言 在我的有生之年里，这些事件从未发生过，但在历史上曾多次出现。最重要的是，我看到在巨额债务和零（或接近于零）利率的综合影响下，世界三大储备货币国家大规模印钞；在各国（特别是美国）内部，由于财富、政治和价值观差距达到约一个世纪以来的最大程度，政治和社会出现...
評分时至今日，所有关于趋势的论述都不能脱离历史数据的演绎，在长周期内寻找锚点一直以来都是考证某种观点的必然途径，所有一切的发展都是有迹可循的，现在发生的某段进程都很可能是过去某段进程在不同阶段的重复和体现，可能只有细节不同而已。 为什么要在长周期内探讨很多问题的...
評分前言 在我的有生之年里，这些事件从未发生过，但在历史上曾多次出现。最重要的是，我看到在巨额债务和零（或接近于零）利率的综合影响下，世界三大储备货币国家大规模印钞；在各国（特别是美国）内部，由于财富、政治和价值观差距达到约一个世纪以来的最大程度，政治和社会出现...
評分不知是有意还是无意，本书的封面已经在事实上透露了本书所讨论的内核，即周期。经济周期理论长期来看一直处于一个微妙的位置。回望传统的经济周期理论，无论凯恩斯、希克斯、熊彼特亦或康德拉季耶夫，每一个人都可谓一方巨擘。但是反过来在经济实践中，似乎又很少用到经济周期...
評分副标题：《原则》作者新书，又对中国有话说 本文首发于微信公众号“花和尚的跑马地”—《[全球最大对冲基金创始人告诉你1400年的“大周期”]》 下面对于未来10年的预测里有让你困惑的吗？ 1. 未来10年，世界上爆发大战的可能性是35% 2. 美国处于自身周期约70%的位置，在未来10...
用戶評價
大時代兒女必讀書目。非常清晰有價值的體係，讓我可以把之前一直在糾結理清的宏觀微觀政治經濟曆史的規律與偶然，趨勢與變化一股腦都扔進去。
评分大時代兒女必讀書目。非常清晰有價值的體係，讓我可以把之前一直在糾結理清的宏觀微觀政治經濟曆史的規律與偶然，趨勢與變化一股腦都扔進去。
评分語言平實樸素，適閤有條件的初高中讀者拿來作課外拓展讀物
评分曆史的pattern如此顯而易見，然而許多人像喂瞭100天的雞一樣看不見。大變局正在發生
评分meaningful work and meaningful relationship。醍醐灌頂
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