圖書標籤: 經濟 地緣政治 國際貿易 學術貼
发表于2024-12-24
The Fat Tail pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
In recent years, investors have learned the hard truth that in the international economy, politics often matters at least as much as economic fundamentals for the performance of global markets. Too many companies and investors haven't yet learned to read the warning signs: their expertise lies much more in economics than politics, and the temptation is to hope that highly volatile situations such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation will be few and far between. But as Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat demonstrate, these scenarios--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than we imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the 'tail' of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat.
This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not.
Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve) and Preston Keat, the president and research director (respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk consultancy firm, The Fat Tail is an indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy.
Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest.
Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.
什麼時候我也能創造一個這樣fancy的理論呀~
評分什麼時候我也能創造一個這樣fancy的理論呀~
評分什麼時候我也能創造一個這樣fancy的理論呀~
評分Ian Bremmer要不就是沒在這本書上用心,要不就是找人代筆。
評分什麼時候我也能創造一個這樣fancy的理論呀~
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The Fat Tail pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024