Toward Rational Exuberance

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出版者:Farrar, Straus and Giroux
作者:B. Mark Smith
出品人:
页数:352
译者:
出版时间:2002-5-30
价格:USD 15.00
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9780374528508
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • investment
  • 金融市场
  • 投资策略
  • 行为金融学
  • 经济学
  • 资产定价
  • 风险管理
  • 市场泡沫
  • 理性投资
  • 价值投资
  • 长期投资
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具体描述

From Publishers Weekly

While at first glance this seems a well-written but familiar history of the United States stock market, between the colorful characters and scandals Smith deftly details the practical and historical workings of the stock market from 1901 when it was "a primitive insider's game" to the present downturn. Carefully charting how early market practices led to wider economic and political events, he demonstrates how public reaction reshaped the market over the decades. For example, a depression-era debacle, wherein Wall Street denizen Richard Whitney borrowed $27 million then declared bankruptcy, engendered the longstanding "New Deal regulatory regime." Fluid, lively prose reminiscent of John Kenneth Galbraith and Burton Malkiel renders this serious endeavor painless to read. Unlike popular histories that jump from the Crash of 1929 to the 1980s in a few pages, this measured narrative examines changes in quiet and dramatic decades alike. Also rare is the book's balanced treatment of the evolution of academic theory and professional practice. Even people in the know will learn much from Smith's simple and elegant presentation. Likewise, those who wish to learn more about the stock market will find it accessible and enjoyable. The book's sole flaw is its single perspective on controversial theories and events. While probably necessary to cover so many years in so few pages, the book lacks depth as a result. Still, it holds important insights for experts and remains a useful introduction for novices. (May)Forecast: A welcome antidote to shrill predictions of looming prosperity or disaster, this is one of the best general works on a topic of broadening interest. If it receives the favorable review attention it deserves, it could rise to the status of a classic within a few years.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Booklist

Smith, an experienced stock trader, sets out to help readers understand the modern stock market and its role in today's economy by tracing its development over the past 100 years. With more than half of the U.S. population owning stock directly or indirectly, he counsels that it is important to know how the market works as the process through which businesses secure the financing that is critical to their very existence. In story form we learn about the great financiers of the early twentieth century, beginning with J. P. Morgan, and events leading up to World War I, the 1929 stock market crash, and World War II, followed by tales of each successive decade and the players who helped shape the market. The author also details the intellectual revolution of Wall Street, featuring such luminaries as Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Merton Miller in explaining his thesis that the modern stock market can only be understood in light of the evolutionary processes that formed it. Mary Whaley

Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Kirkus Reviews

"Smith is savvy . . . [His] history of the modern stock market . . .[is] exquisitely revealing and written with real polish . . ." --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

"[A] provocative look at the fitful evolution of the markets." --Wayne E. Yang, The Christian Science Monitor

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Book Description

To an unprecedented degree, the health of the American economy, and the financial well-being of the average American, is tied to the stock market. Toward Rational Exuberance tells the story of how the market came to be what it is today, providing an in-depth understanding of the theories that drive investor behavior, the vivid personalities who have dominated the stock market's turbulent history, and the processes by which the market has evolved to its present state -- elements essential to anyone seeking to understand the workings of the modern economy.

The stock market is big news now, influencing every aspect of the modern economy. Accepted wisdom has it that the market will provide retirement security for anyone willing to diligently save and invest.

Yet many people still alive can remember a very different time, when the stock market was little more than a primitive insider's game viewed by most Americans with skepticism and suspicion. In Toward Rational Exuberance, B. Mark Smith, a retired stock trader with nearly two decades of practical experience, tells the story of how this stunning transformation occurred. It is a fascinating story, involving colorful personalities, dramatic events, and revolutionary new ideas. In the course of the narrative, Smith traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time and have greatly influenced the way the investing public views the market. But he also shows how some of these theories -- such as the notion that the market is often susceptible to speculative "bubbles" that will inevitably burst -- are based on faulty interpretations of market history that may lead investors to draw inaccurate conclusions about the market today.

The central thesis of Toward Rational Exuberance is that the modern stock market is the product of a dynamic evolutionary process; it is very different from what it was in the past. It cannot be measured simply by comparison with arbitrary historical standards, and its behavior cannot be predicted by extrapolating those standards into the future. It is only by understanding the process by which the modern market has been created that today's investor can begin to understand the market itself. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

好的,这是一份针对一本名为《向着理性的繁荣》(Toward Rational Exuberance)的书籍的简介,此简介的内容完全不涉及任何关于“图书名称”本身或与该名称直接相关的市场、经济、金融主题,而是构建了一个基于历史、文化、社会学和哲学视角的深度探讨。 --- 《编织时代的黎明:技术、传统与人类精神的重塑》 简介 本书并非一部关于市场波动的教科书,也不是对宏观经济学理论的复盘。相反,它是一次深入历史褶皱、探究人类精神内核的哲学漫游。《编织时代的黎明》 聚焦于一个核心命题:在每一次重大的技术或社会范式转移的浪潮中,人类是如何调和其对变革的内在渴望(即“繁荣的冲动”)与根植于我们文化深处的理性约束(即“审慎的结构”)的? 作者以跨学科的视角,将目光投向了15世纪欧洲印刷术的兴起到20世纪初电力革命的过渡期,以此为蓝本,细致解构了知识传播、社会结构和个体身份认同在加速变革中的复杂重构过程。 第一部:轴心时刻的共振:从泥板到活字 本书的第一部分,我们首先要回归到人类信息处理能力发生质变的关键节点。作者没有停留在对古登堡技术的简单赞美,而是深入剖析了这种“快速复制”的能力对中世纪神圣秩序的侵蚀过程。 知识的民主化与失序的开端: 印刷术的出现,首次将“真理”从少数精英阶层的掌握中解放出来。然而,这种解放并非没有代价。我们探讨了早期印刷品中充斥的迷信、异端学说和未经证实的“小道消息”如何与神学论著并驾齐驱。这揭示了一个深刻的悖论:信息的大量涌入,初期带来的不是清晰的认知,而是认知的过载与新的混乱。 工匠精神的衰落与新“专家”的诞生: 我们考察了抄写员、手稿装订匠等传统工匠阶层的集体命运。他们的技能,曾经被视为神圣的工艺,迅速被标准化和工业化的生产模式所取代。这催生了对“权威”理解的转变——从基于经验和代代相传的技艺,转向基于文本和出版量的新型知识权威。作者认为,这是对人类“熟练性”概念的首次大规模冲击。 地理与时间的压缩: 活字印刷极大地重塑了人们对“距离”和“时间”的感知。信件、地图和科学发现的传播速度不再受限于马匹或船只的极限,这促使了一种“同步存在感”的萌芽,人们开始相信,遥远的他者与自己正处于同一思想的流变之中。 第二部:精神的炼金术:传统与创新的张力 本书的第二部分将焦点转向社会结构和人类的集体心理。作者挑战了进步主义叙事中将历史视为一条单向度、不断向上的河流的观点,主张历史更像是一张由相互牵制的纤维构成的复杂挂毯。 城市化的镜像: 随着印刷品和新商业模式的扩散,人口向新兴的商业中心集聚。我们详细分析了早期城市空间中“匿名性”的兴起,以及这种匿名性如何既是个人自由的温床,也是社会凝聚力瓦解的诱因。在拥挤的街道上,古老的社区约束力减弱,个体必须依靠新的、更加“抽象化”的契约(如法律文件和合同)来规范行为。 象征资本的置换: 作者引入了“象征资本”的概念,来解释旧有贵族特权(基于血统和土地)如何被新兴资产阶级通过对新兴媒介和知识的掌握所取代。这种置换过程充满了张力,它表现为对“品味”、“礼仪”和“教养”的激烈争夺——这些都是在没有明确市场价格时,对新获得地位的文化验证。 “理性”的边界: 传统的理性观(通常与启蒙运动的逻辑清晰度挂钩)在面对大规模社会变革时显得捉襟见肘。作者通过分析17、18世纪的哲学辩论,揭示了对“何为有效推理”的持续争论。这种争论并非关于数学公式,而是关于如何构建一个可信的社会叙事,以应对快速变化带来的焦虑。 第三部:重塑自我:个体叙事与集体记忆 最后一章,本书探讨了技术变革对个体身份和集体记忆的深层影响,这是一个关于“我们是谁”的问题,而不是“我们拥有什么”。 “自我”作为文本: 印刷文化催生了日记、回忆录和自传的兴盛。个体开始将自己的人生视为一个可以被记录、编辑和向外部世界展示的“文本”。作者认为,这种将生命“文本化”的趋势,是现代自我意识形成的关键一步。然而,这种文本化也带来了对真实性的质疑——我们所记录的是发生过的事情,还是我们希望成为的样子? 非正式网络的韧性: 尽管技术变革看似无情地摧毁了旧有的结构,但本书也强调了人类在非正式网络——如咖啡馆文化、秘密社团、家庭作坊——中展现出的惊人韧性。这些“影子”系统在官方机构效率低下或充满敌意时,成为了知识交流和情感支持的避难所。它们代表着对过度制度化的反抗,是保持人类温度的重要缓冲。 历史的“未完成性”: 最终,本书以一种审慎的乐观态度收尾。作者总结道,每一次重大的技术或社会突破,都将人类带入一个充满不确定性的新领域。我们所观察到的所有“繁荣”的迹象,都建立在对未知风险的计算和对既有智慧的重新诠释之上。历史并非通往某个既定终点的路径,而是一个持续的、需要我们不断进行“精神编织”的过程,将新的纤维与旧的经纬交织在一起,以应对下一个时代的到来。 《编织时代的黎明》 是对所有致力于理解变革、珍视文化深度、并寻求在快速演进的世界中锚定自身意义的读者的邀请函。它要求我们放慢脚步,审视那些在表面喧嚣下真正塑造了我们世界的结构性力量。

作者简介

B. Mark Smith was a professional stock trader for nearly two decades, first with CS/First Boston Corporation, where he became director, then as a vice president of Goldman, Sachs & Co. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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