Since the early 1980s, the crossstrait relationship between Taiwan and mainland China has exploded, driven by economic and political reforms. As a result, each would suffer great economic pain and dislocation in the event of a major disruption in that rapidly growing economic relationship. This monograph analyzes the political impact of that relationship and evaluates the prospects for Beijing to exploit it by employing economic coercion against Taiwan.

Murray “Scot” Tanner, Ph.D. is an Asia analyst in CNA's China Strategic Issues Group. He has written and published widely on Chinese and East Asian politics and security issues, including internal security, social unrest, policing, and political reform in China, as well as China’s emerging national security interests and policy-making institutions, Chinese military doctrine, and China’s security relations with India, Russia, North Korea, and Taiwan. He is the author of many books, monographs, and articles, including Distracted Antagonists, Wary Partners: China and India Assess their Security Relations (CNA, 2011); China Confronts Afghan Drugs: Law Enforcement Views of the “Golden Crescent” (CNA, 2011); Chinese Economic Coercion Against Taiwan: A Tricky Weapon to Use (RAND, 2007); and The Politics of Lawmaking in China (Oxford University Press, 1998). He is also co-author of A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute (RAND, 2009) and Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense (RAND, 2007). His articles and book chapters, which have appeared in such journals as The Washington Quarterly, Comparative Politics, The China Quarterly, and The China Journal, include “Principals and Secret Agents: Central versus Local Control Over Policing and Obstacles to ‘Rule of Law’ in China” (The China Quarterly, September 2007), and “The Missions of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force” (Richard P. Hallion, et al, eds., The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, 2012).

Before joining CNA, Tanner served as a professor of political science at Western Michigan University, as a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, and as the co-chairman’s senior staff member for the Congressional-Executive Commission on China.

Tanner holds a Ph.D. in political science and a B.A. in political science, East Asian languages and literature, and Asian studies, both from the University of Michigan.