Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

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出版者:Open SUNY Textbooks
作者:Hiroki Sayama
出品人:
页数:496
译者:
出版时间:2015
价格:GBP 12.84
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9781942341086
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • chaos
  • 计算机
  • 编程
  • Python
  • Programming
  • NECSI
  • 复杂系统
  • 建模与分析
  • 系统科学
  • 复杂性科学
  • 数学建模
  • 仿真
  • 网络科学
  • 控制理论
  • 运筹学
  • 数据分析
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具体描述

Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems introduces students to mathematical/computational modeling and analysis developed in the emerging interdisciplinary field of Complex Systems Science. Complex systems are systems made of a large number of microscopic components interacting with each other in nontrivial ways. Many real-world systems can be understood as complex systems, where critically important information resides in the relationships between the parts and not necessarily within the parts themselves. This textbook offers an accessible yet technically-oriented introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems. The topics covered include: fundamentals of modeling, basics of dynamical systems, discrete-time models, continuous-time models, bifurcations, chaos, cellular automata, continuous field models, static networks, dynamic networks, and agent-based models. Most of these topics are discussed in two chapters, one focusing on computational modeling and the other on mathematical analysis. This unique approach provides a comprehensive view of related concepts and techniques, and allows readers and instructors to flexibly choose relevant materials based on their objectives and needs. Python sample codes are provided for each modeling example.

This textbook is also available free online from the Open SUNY Textbooks website (http://textbooks.opensuny.org).

复杂系统建模与分析导论:探索未知边界的钥匙 当我们审视周遭的世界,无论是浩瀚的宇宙、涌动的人群、生长的生物,还是错综复杂的经济网络,我们都在与“复杂系统”共舞。这些系统并非简单的线性因果关系堆砌,而是由大量相互关联的个体组成,个体间的非线性互动催生出涌现性(Emergence)的宏观行为,使得整体的表现远超局部之和。理解并驾驭这些系统,已成为当今科学、工程、社会乃至商业领域的核心挑战。 《复杂系统建模与分析导论》一书,正是为那些渴望深入洞察这些错综复杂现象背后规律的探索者们量身打造的一份详实指南。它并非一本枯燥的概念罗列,而是一次引人入胜的智力探险,旨在为读者提供一套系统性的思维框架和分析工具,用以理解、预测甚至在一定程度上影响复杂系统的行为。本书的价值在于,它能够帮助你将杂乱无章的观测数据转化为有意义的见解,将看似随机的事件背后隐藏的结构揭示出来,最终赋予你驾驭不确定性、应对挑战的强大能力。 本书的第一部分,将为你奠定坚实的理论基础。我们将从“什么是复杂系统”这一根本问题出发,深入剖析复杂系统的关键特征,包括: 个体与整体的关系: 详细阐述“涌现性”的概念,解释为何从个体行为的简单规则,却能演变出令人惊叹的集体智慧和组织模式。我们将通过生动的案例,例如鸟群的集体飞行、蚂蚁的觅食路径,来直观地展现这一点。 相互依赖与反馈回路: 探讨系统中各组成部分之间千丝万缕的联系,以及正负反馈在系统稳定性与动态变化中的作用。理解反馈机制,是洞察系统行为的关键。例如,在经济系统中,消费信心提升会刺激投资,投资增加又会进一步提振信心,形成正反馈循环;而环境污染与资源枯竭,则可能触发一系列负面反馈,导致系统失衡。 自组织与适应性: 深入研究复杂系统如何能在没有外部中央控制的情况下,自发地形成有序结构,并根据环境变化进行调整。我们将探讨诸如“自催化循环”等概念,以及它们如何在生物演化、市场形成等现象中发挥作用。 非线性动力学: 强调复杂系统中普遍存在的非线性关系,这意味着微小的输入变化可能导致巨大的输出差异(蝴蝶效应)。本书将引入相空间、吸引子等概念,帮助读者理解系统轨迹的不可预测性和模式的多样性。 在掌握了基本概念后,本书的第二部分将聚焦于建模的艺术。建模是理解复杂系统的强大桥梁,它允许我们构建简化的、可操作的模型,从而模拟和检验关于系统行为的假设。本书将介绍多种主流的建模方法,并根据不同复杂系统的特点,指导读者选择最适合的工具: 基于主体的建模(Agent-Based Modeling, ABM): 这是本书重点介绍的建模范式之一。ABM将系统分解为一系列具有独立行为和交互规则的“主体”。通过模拟大量主体的互动,我们可以观察和分析宏观层面的 emergent behavior。我们将详细讲解如何设计主体、定义行为规则、设置交互机制,并介绍NetLogo、Repast等常用的ABM平台。本书将通过具体的案例,例如城市交通流模拟、传染病传播模型、消费者市场行为模拟等,来展示ABM的强大威力。 网络分析(Network Analysis): 许多复杂系统本质上是网络结构,例如社交网络、互联网、基因调控网络等。本书将深入介绍图论的基本概念,包括节点、边、度、中心性等指标,以及如何分析网络的结构特征,如群集系数、路径长度、社群检测等。我们将探讨如何在不同领域应用网络分析,例如识别关键影响者、评估信息传播效率、预测系统脆弱性等。 系统动力学(System Dynamics): 对于那些涉及大量变量、反馈回路和时间延迟的系统,系统动力学提供了一种强大的可视化和分析方法。我们将讲解如何构建库存-流量图,识别关键的反馈回路,并使用仿真软件(如Vensim)来探索系统随时间的变化趋势。本书将通过环境模型、经济增长模型等经典案例,展现系统动力学在长期预测和政策评估中的作用。 统计建模与机器学习: 随着数据科学的飞速发展,统计模型和机器学习算法在复杂系统分析中扮演着越来越重要的角色。本书将介绍如何利用统计方法提取数据中的模式,并应用机器学习技术进行预测、分类和模式识别。我们将涵盖回归分析、聚类分析、时间序列分析,以及一些前沿的深度学习模型,并强调如何将这些技术与我们之前介绍的建模方法相结合,以获得更全面的洞察。 在掌握了建模工具之后,本书的第三部分将带领读者进入分析的殿堂。建模的最终目的是为了获得有意义的分析结果,并将其转化为可操作的知识。本书将引导你进行严谨的分析,从而揭示复杂系统的深层规律: 参数敏感性分析与不确定性量化: 复杂系统通常包含大量的参数,其取值往往存在不确定性。本书将介绍如何通过参数敏感性分析,识别对系统输出影响最大的参数,并量化这些不确定性对预测结果的影响。这将帮助你理解模型的局限性,并避免过度自信的结论。 模型验证与校准: 建立模型并非终点,如何验证模型的有效性,并将其与真实数据进行校准,是至关重要的一步。本书将介绍多种模型验证技术,包括与历史数据进行比对、进行前瞻性预测等,并探讨如何根据数据反馈来优化模型参数。 情景分析与“如果”研究: 复杂系统往往是动态演化的,理解不同干预措施或外部变化对系统可能产生的影响至关重要。本书将指导你如何设计和执行情景分析,模拟各种“如果”情境,从而为决策提供支持。 可视化与叙事: 即使是最精密的模型和分析,如果无法清晰地传达给他人,其价值也将大打折扣。本书将强调可视化在复杂系统分析中的关键作用,并教授如何通过图表、动画等方式,将抽象的分析结果转化为直观的、易于理解的叙事,从而有效地与他人沟通你的发现。 本书的写作风格力求清晰、严谨且富有启发性。我们避免使用过于晦涩的术语,而是通过大量精心设计的案例研究,将抽象的理论具象化。从生物学中的疾病传播,到经济学中的金融危机,从社会学中的城市发展,到环境科学中的气候变化,本书涵盖了广泛的应用领域,旨在展示复杂系统建模与分析的普适性。 无论你是计算机科学家、物理学家、生物学家、经济学家、社会学家、工程师,还是对世界运作方式充满好奇心的普通读者,《复杂系统建模与分析导论》都将为你开启一扇通往深刻理解的大门。它将赋予你以新的视角审视问题,以更强大的工具分析挑战,并最终帮助你在复杂的世界中做出更明智的决策。 这本书不仅仅是一门学科的介绍,更是一种思维方式的培养,一种探索未知边界的钥匙。

作者简介

Review

"Hiroki Sayama’s book “Introduction to the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems” is therefore a unique and welcome addition to any instructor’s collection. What makes it valuable is that it not only presents a state-of-the-art review of the domain but also serves as a gentle guide to learning the sophisticated art of modeling complex systems."

–Muaz A. Niazi, Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling 2016 4:3"

About the Author

Hiroki Sayama, D.Sc., is an Associate Professor in the Department of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering, and the Director of the Center for Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems (CoCo), at Binghamton University, State University of New York. He received his BSc, MSc and DSc in Information Science, all from the University of Tokyo, Japan. He did his postdoctoral work at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, from 1999 to 2002. His research interests include complex dynamical networks, human and social dynamics, collective behaviors, artificial life/chemistry, and interactive systems, among others. He is an expert of mathematical/computational modeling and analysis of various complex systems. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles and conference proceedings papers and has edited eight books and conference proceedings about complex systems related topics. His publications have acquired more than 2000 citations as of July 2015. He currently serves as an elected Board Member of the International Society for Artificial Life (ISAL) and as an editorial board member for Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling (SpringerOpen), International Journal of Parallel, Emergent and Distributed Systems (Taylor & Francis), and Applied Network Science (SpringerOpen).

目录信息

Book Review
Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling
December 2016, 4:3
First online: 03 February 2016
Introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems: a review
Muaz A. Niazi
10.1186/s40294-016-0015-x
Copyright information
Abstract
Sayama, H Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems Open SUNY textbooks, Milne Library, State University of New York at Geneseo (2015). 485 pages, Print ISBN: 1942341083.
Keywords
Complex systems Complex networks Modeling Simulation
Overview
While there is considerable diversity in the domain of complex adaptive systems modeling research Niazi (2013), there are only a handful of books in the market suitable for use in complexity-related courses. Existing books include Boccara’s “Modeling Complex Systems” Boccara (2010) and books with a focus on agent-based modeling including Macal and North’s textbook Macal and North (2007) and Railsback and Grimm’s book with a focus on the ecological perspective Railsback and Grimm (2011). Mathematically-oriented textbooks include a book by Edward and Hamson, Edwards and Hamson (2007) as well as one by Dym (2004).
Hiroki Sayama’s book “Introduction to the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems” is therefore a unique and welcome addition to any instructor’s collection. What makes it valuable is that it not only presents a state-of-the-art review of the domain but also serves as a gentle guide to learning the sophisticated art of modeling complex systems.
The book is primarily composed of three types of chapters: preliminary chapters followed by logically interspersed modeling and analysis chapters. It has been designed for use both in basic as well as advanced courses spanning 1–2 semesters. Additionally, the book demonstrates the use of PyCX, a freely available Python-based complex systems simulation framework Sayama (2013).
Review
In terms of organization, the book is intuitively sectioned in three parts. The first part starts with an overview of complex systems basics. The second part covers introductory material for formal/mathematical modeling of complex systems. The third part deals with modeling complex systems with a large number of variables.
Part I
The first chapter gives a bird’s eye view of the author’s perspective of the complex systems universe. In the second chapter, basic concepts and a general overview of modeling and analysis of complex systems are described.
Part II
Chapter 3 describes fundamental concepts of dynamical systems and phase spaces. Chapter 4 describes discrete time modeling using difference equations with a hands-on approach. Chapter 5 focuses on the analysis of discrete-time models including the discovery of equilibrium points, phase space visualization, and cobweb plots among other topics. Chapter 6 describes continuous-time modeling using differential equations with an exercise involving developing a model’s equation. Chapter 7 logically follows Chapter 6 with a focus on analyses similar to Chapter 5. Chapter 8 focuses on bifurcations in both continuous and discrete-time models. Chapter 9 introduces Chaos basics including Lyapunov exponent among other topics.
Part III
Chapter 10 introduces interactive simulation of complex systems using PyCX. Chapter 11 and 12 focus on the modeling and analysis of cellular automata models. Continuous field models are described next in Chapter 13 and 14. Chapter 15 introduces network models and is followed by three chapters on the modeling and analysis of dynamic networks both in terms of topology as well as dynamics. The final Chapter 19 introduces agent-based models.
Price
The eVersion of the book is available for free. Additionally, there are two different prices for the color and black and white editions of the printed book—making it an economical buy in either case.
Conclusions
Overall, the book covers a lot of material and is an excellent compendium for modeling and simulation researchers as well as grad students and instructors. After reading it, the only hope is that Dr. Sayama would perhaps also consider adding a second volume or a few chapters in the next edition to discuss more topics specific to agents and agent-based modeling.
Competing interests
The author declare that they have no competing interests.
References
Boccara N (2010) Modeling complex systems. Springer, Heidelberg
Dym C (2004) Principles of mathematical modeling. Academic press, New York
Edwards D, Hamson M (2007) Guide to mathematical modelling. Industrial Press, South Norwalk
Macal CM, North M (2007) Managing business complexity: discovering strategic solutions with agent-based modeling and simulation. Oxford Scholarship Online
Niazi MA (2013) Complex adaptive systems modeling: a multidisciplinary roadmap. Complex Adaptive Syst Model 1(1):1–14
CrossRef
Railsback SF, Grimm V (2011) Agent-based and individual-based modeling: a practical introduction. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Sayama H (2013) Pycx: a python-based simulation code repository for complex systems education. Complex Adaptive Syst Model 1(1):1–10
CrossRef
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这本书的排版和装帧质量,简直是艺术品级别的。纸张的质感非常厚实,油墨的清晰度极高,即便是那些复杂的数学符号和希腊字母,也印制得一丝不苟,长时间阅读下来眼睛的疲劳感明显低于其他同类书籍。当然,这种精良的制作也意味着它更适合作为案头参考书,而不是随身携带的速查手册。我认为这本书最核心的贡献,在于它提供了一种全新的“思维工具箱”,而不是一套现成的“解决方案手册”。作者巧妙地规避了陷入特定领域模型的陷阱,而是着重于提炼那些普适性的建模范式。我特别喜欢其中关于“因果关系识别”的章节,它毫不留情地批判了许多领域中“相关性陷阱”的泛滥,引导读者深入探究机制本身。读完这部分,你会对那些简单的新闻标题和流行理论产生一种本能的警惕和怀疑,这才是真正有价值的知识沉淀。

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这本书的封面设计相当引人注目,那种深沉的蓝与跳跃的橙色碰撞出的视觉冲击力,让人立刻意识到这不是一本轻松的读物。我第一次翻开它的时候,就被作者那种严谨到近乎偏执的逻辑结构所震撼。每一个章节的衔接都像是精密机械的齿轮咬合,环环相扣,毫无松动之处。尤其是关于“系统边界定义”的那一章,作者没有采用那种平铺直叙的讲解方式,而是通过一系列层层递进的哲学思辨,将这个看似枯燥的建模基础问题,提升到了一个新的认知高度。我感觉作者在试图带领读者进入一个由纯粹理性构筑的迷宫,每一步都需要读者付出极大的心智努力去跟随。那种感觉就像是攀登一座陡峭的山峰,每向上一步,视野都会开阔一分,但同时,脚下的风险也随之增加。这本书显然不是为那些寻求快速解决方案的人准备的,它更像是一份邀请函,邀请那些真正热爱深度思考、愿意在复杂性中寻找秩序的探险家。我花了整整一个月的时间才消化完前三章,但那种“豁然开朗”的满足感,是其他任何技术书籍都无法给予的。

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坦白说,这本书的难度曲线非常陡峭,它对待读者的预设知识背景要求极高。我感觉作者默认读者已经对基础的微积分、线性代数以及离散数学有着非常扎实的掌握,并且对经典控制论和信息论的框架有所涉猎。这本书的价值,恰恰体现在它对“跨界融合”的精妙处理上。比如,它将生物学中的自组织原理,巧妙地迁移到了社会经济模型的构建中,这不仅仅是简单地套用公式,而是深层次的结构性映射。我记得在讨论“鲁棒性与脆弱性”这一议题时,作者构建了一个动态反馈回路,用以解释为什么高度优化的系统往往对微小的外部扰动表现出极度的敏感性。那种对系统“阿喀琉斯之踵”的深刻洞察力,让我对现实世界中许多看似坚固的结构产生了全新的审视角度。这本书的阅读体验,更像是上了一堂高强度的、纯理论的研究生研讨课,需要随时准备好提问和辩驳。

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这本书的行文风格,用“冷峻的诗意”来形容可能最为贴切。它不像传统教科书那样,充满了标准化的例题和模板化的公式推导,反而更像是一部关于世界运行规律的学术散文。作者在阐述复杂系统中的“涌现”现象时,那段描述简直妙不可言,他用到了类似音乐和色彩理论的类比,将原本抽象的数学概念,赋予了感官上的体验。我尤其欣赏作者在引用前人研究成果时的那种克制与尊重,他不会滥用那些拗口的学术术语来堆砌知识的厚度,而是精准地找到最恰当的比喻来阐明观点。读起来,你会时不时地停下来,合上书本,望向窗外,思考一下自己身处的环境是否也可以用书中的模型去解构。这种强烈的互动性,使得阅读过程不再是被动接收信息,而更像是一场与作者进行的、跨越时空的学术对话。唯一让我觉得有些吃力的地方,是某些关于非线性动力学的插图,它们的设计似乎过于追求简洁,导致初次接触的读者需要花费额外的时间去解码图中的符号含义。

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从阅读的心态上讲,这本书需要你放下一切“速成”的幻想。我尝试过在通勤路上阅读,结果发现效率极低,因为它的每一个论点都需要一个安静、专注的环境来消化吸收。它更像是要求你坐在书桌前,备好纸笔,随时准备推导、画图、甚至推翻自己原有的某些认知。作者在介绍“多尺度分析”时,那种对时间尺度和空间尺度差异的精确拿捏,让我深思了很久。他没有给出任何“一键转换”的捷径,而是强调了不同尺度下,决定性力量是如何发生转换的。这种对复杂性本质的尊重,使得这本书具有了一种超越学科限制的永恒魅力。它不是一本读完就能立刻在简历上增添一笔的“热门技术指南”,而是一部需要时间去沉淀、去内化,最终影响你观察世界方式的“内功心法”。每一次重读,都会有新的感悟涌现,这种深度,是那些只停留在表面现象讨论的书籍所望尘莫及的。

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NECSI合作者写的,日本写的书就是简单,不过最后对复杂科学有基础,否则有代码也白干

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非常非常清楚易懂,书略厚……

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NECSI合作者写的,日本写的书就是简单,不过最后对复杂科学有基础,否则有代码也白干

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非常非常清楚易懂,书略厚……

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NECSI合作者写的,日本写的书就是简单,不过最后对复杂科学有基础,否则有代码也白干

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