Contents

Foreword vii

John L. Thornton

Acknowledgments xi

1 Introduction: Assessing China’s Political Development 1

Cheng Li

Part I. Chinese Discourse about Democracy

2 China’s Political Trajectory: What Are the Chinese Saying? 25

Andrew J. Nathan

3 Ideological Change and Incremental Democracy in 44

Reform-Era China

Yu Keping

Part II. Institutional Development and Generational Change

4 Institutionalization and the Changing Dynamics of 61

Chinese Leadership Politics

Alice L. Miller

5 Institutionalization of Political Succession in China: 80

Progress and Implications

Jing Huang

6 Will China’s “Lost Generation” Find a Path to Democracy? 98

Cheng Li

v

Part III. Economic Actors and Economic Policy

7 Business Interest Groups in Chinese Politics: 121

The Case of the Oil Companies

Erica S. Downs

8 China’s Left Tilt: Pendulum Swing or Midcourse Correction? 142

Barry Naughton

Part IV. Agents of Change: Media, Law, and Civil Society

9 Political Implications of China’s Information Revolution: 161

The Media, the Minders, and Their Message

Richard Baum

10 Legalization without Democratization in China under Hu Jintao 185

Jacques deLisle

11 Staying in Power: What Does the Chinese Communist 212

Party Have to Do?

Joseph Fewsmith

Part V. Forces for and against Democracy in China

12 Fighting Corruption: A Difficult Challenge for Chinese Leaders 229

Minxin Pei

13 The Political Implications of China’s Social Future: 251

Complacency, Scorn, and the Forlorn

Dorothy J. Solinger

14 Straining against the Yoke? Civil-Military Relations in 267

China after the Seventeenth Party Congress

James Mulvenon

Part VI. External Models and China’s Future

15 Learning from Abroad to Reinvent Itself: External 283

Influences on Internal CCP Reforms

David Shambaugh

16 Taiwan and China’s Democratic Future: 302

Can the Tail Wag the Dog?

Chu Yun-han

Contributors 323

Index 331

vi Contents

About the Author

Cheng Li is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. His previous books include China's Leaders: The New Generation (Rowman and Littlefield, 2001), and Rediscovering China (Rowman and Littlefield, 1997).