Probability Guide to Gambling

Probability Guide to Gambling pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

出版者:Lightning Source Inc
作者:Barboianu, Catalin
出品人:
页数:332
译者:
出版时间:2006-8
价格:$ 32.77
装帧:Pap
isbn号码:9789738752030
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 数学
  • 体育
  • Gambling
  • Probability
  • Mathematics
  • Statistics
  • Casino
  • Games
  • Risk Assessment
  • Decision Making
  • Betting
  • Odds
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具体描述

Over the past few decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory that can model the hazards of gambling, even in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as purely theoretical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining in simple terms the meaning of the concept of probability for the layman and goes on to become an enlightening journey through the mathematics of chance, randomness and risk. It then continues with the basics of discrete probability (definitions, properties, theorems and calculus formulas), combinatorics and counting arguments for those interested in the supporting mathematics. These mathematic sections may be skipped by readers who do not have a minimal background in mathematics; these readers can skip directly to the "Guide to Numerical Results" to pick the odds and recommendations they need for the desired gaming situation. Doing so is possible due to the organization of that chapter, in which the results are listed at the end of each section, mostly in the form of tables. The chapter titled "The Mathematics of Games of Chance" presents these games not only as a good application field for probability theory, but also in terms of human actions where probability-based strategies can be tried to achieve favorable results. Through suggestive examples, the reader can see what experiments, events and probability fields mean in games of chance and why and how probability formulas can be applied there. The main portion of this work is a collection of probability results for each type of game. Each game's section is packed with formulas and tables. Each section also contains a description of the game, a classification of the gaming events and the applicable probability calculations. The primary goal of this work is to allow the reader to quickly find the odds for a specific gaming situation, in order to improve his or her betting/gaming decisions. Every type of gaming event is tabulated in a logical, consistent and comprehensive manner. The complete methodology and complete or partial calculations are shown to teach players how to calculate probability for any situation, for every stage of the game for any game. Here, readers can find the real odds, returned by precise mathematical formulas and not by partial simulations that most software uses. Collections of odds are presented, as well as strategic recommendations based on those odds, where necessary, for each type of gaming situation. The book contains much new and original material that has not been published previously and provides great coverage of probabilities for the following games of chance: Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Five Card Draw Poker, Texas Hold'em Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets. No formal background in mathematics is necessary to read these sections, although familiarity with some probability and set theory notions is helpful. In most cases, readers will benefit from having some college math to follow the formulas here, but this is not a requirement because the numerical results are given as summaries and tables at the end of each section. Most of casino games are predisposed to probability-based decisions. This is why the approach is not an exclusively statistical one (like many other titles published on this subject), but analytical: every gaming event is taken as an individual applied probability problem to solve. A special chapter defines the probability-based strategy and mathematically shows why such strategy is theoretically optimal. The author is a recognized authority on casino mathematics.

《概率游戏:从赌场到策略的深度探索》 本书并非一本简单的介绍赌场游戏规则或技巧的入门读物,而是一场深入探究“概率”这一核心概念如何塑造我们决策、影响结果,乃至在风险与回报之间划定边界的智识之旅。我们将告别那些陈旧的、基于直觉或迷信的赌博观念,转而以严谨的数学思维为导引,理解隐藏在每一次抛硬币、每一次洗牌、每一次转动轮盘背后的深层逻辑。 我们的旅程将从概率论的基础概念出发,逐层深入。首先,我们会剖析概率的几种基本定义——古典概率、统计概率和主观概率——并阐释它们在不同情境下的适用性。理解这些基础,是构建我们后续分析框架的基石。例如,我们将探讨如何计算一个独立事件发生的概率,以及连续事件联合发生的概率。这不仅仅是关于纸面上的计算,更是关于如何将这些抽象概念应用于真实的、充满变数的博弈环境中。 接着,本书将聚焦于赌博中常见的数学模型。我们会详细介绍泊松分布、二项分布、正态分布等概率分布在预测游戏结果中的应用。以二十一点为例,我们将不仅仅停留在“计算牌数”层面,而是深入到“基于当前局势,下一张牌是某个特定点数的概率是多少”的细致分析,并引申出“卡牌计算”(Card Counting)的数学原理,以及它为何能在理论上赋予玩家一定的优势。对于轮盘赌,我们将从几何概率的角度出发,分析球落入某个数字区域的可能性,并解析赌场庄家优势(House Edge)的数学构成,理解为何长期而言,玩家“输钱”是大概的必然。 本书不会回避那些被广泛讨论但往往被误解的概率概念。例如,“赌徒谬误”(Gambler's Fallacy)——即认为独立事件的发生概率会受到过去结果的影响——将被严谨地剖析其不合逻辑之处,并用数学模型展示其误导性。我们还将探讨“期望值”(Expected Value)在评估赌博策略时的关键作用,理解为何一个负期望值的游戏,即使偶尔能赢,长期参与也必然导致损失。我们将计算不同下注策略的期望值,从而辨别哪些策略在数学上是可持续的,哪些则注定是徒劳。 除了纯粹的数学计算,我们还将触及一些更复杂的概率应用。例如,在扑克游戏中,我们将探讨如何评估对手的“牌力范围”(Hand Range),以及如何利用贝叶斯定理(Bayes' Theorem)在获取新信息后更新我们对对手手牌的判断。这不仅涉及计算,更是一种动态的、基于信息的决策艺术。 本书还将引导读者思考“风险管理”和“资本管理”(Bankroll Management)在赌博策略中的重要性。了解概率分布的方差(Variance)和标准差(Standard Deviation),有助于我们理解为什么即使在期望值为正的游戏中,也可能经历漫长的连败。我们将讨论如何通过合理的下注单位和止损策略,来最大化我们在长时间内保持游戏资格的可能性,以及在机会出现时抓住它的能力。 更进一步,我们还将探讨一些更为高深的统计学和概率论概念,如蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)。通过大量的随机抽样,我们可以模拟出成千上万次的游戏过程,从而更直观地理解长期的概率趋势和极端情况的发生概率。这对于评估复杂游戏系统的长期表现,或是在没有解析解的情况下估算概率,都具有不可估量的价值。 本书的目标是赋予读者一种“概率思维”的能力,这种能力不仅适用于赌场,更延伸至投资、保险、医学诊断,乃至我们日常生活中的许多决策。我们将学会如何量化不确定性,如何区分随机波动与系统性风险,以及如何在信息不完整的情况下做出更理性的选择。 《概率游戏:从赌场到策略的深度探索》并非提供一个“必赢”的秘籍,因为在本质上,大多数赌场游戏都被设计成对庄家有利。然而,本书将为你揭示游戏背后的数学真相,让你以一种更清晰、更科学的视角来理解风险与回报,并在这个充满概率的世界中,做出更明智、更有策略的决策。它将教会你识别那些表面诱人但隐藏着巨大数学陷阱的游戏,也能让你在理解规则和概率的基础上,享受更纯粹的智力挑战和博弈乐趣。

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