<p>Amazon.com Canals. Railroads. Automobiles. Computers. The Internet. Each represented revolutionary shifts in the way Americans would live and do business. Each saw a corresponding rush of investors to get in on this great new investment opportunity. Each saw a lot of investors go broke. In The Internet Bubble, Anthony Perkins and Michael Perkins, founding editors of The Red Herring, look at it this way: In the early 20th century, there were more than 500 automobile companies in the U.S. Now how many are there? Same with the new Internet companies, the Perkinses predict. A few will grow into profitable businesses in 10 or 20 years, but even then, their stocks may not be worth much more than their 1999 prices. They argue that buying an Internet stock today is really nothing more than gambling that someone else will come along and buy it from you for more money. The book includes an overview of the biggest players in the Internet explosion, the market mania for Internet stocks, and profiles of companies such as Amazon.com, Yahoo! and At Home. The authors also interview venture capitalists who help new companies get off the ground and the investment bankers who help them go public. And while they don't pretend that they know when the Internet bubble will burst, or what the damage will be, they are convinced that most .com companies will never make a dime. The book concludes with some thoughts about investing in this climate, and argues that ignoring the Internet may be as dangerous to your portfolio as investing too much. Some guidelines about product cycles and diversification appear, but the biggest rule seems to be: Don't be the one holding the hot potato at the end of the game. --Lou Schuler From Publishers Weekly With all the talk about the Dow riding technology stocks to new highs (e.g., James K. Glassman's and Kevin A. Hassett's Dow 36,000, Forecasts, Aug. 30), count the Perkinses, founders of the technology business magazine Red Herring, among the naysayers. Not that they're bearish about the future of the Internet itself. They assume the technology will improve and will change the way ordinary people live, and that there will be an increase in transactions, revenues and profits. But they argue that, even with rapid growth, the current high prices of Internet and related technology stocks are unjustified. The technology and the business models are fine, but they believe that too many companies are being rushed to public securities markets before they are ready, and investors are all too willing to buy anything that is going up in price. The result, they argue, is a classic investment mania, in which higher prices generate more excitement and even higher pricesAuntil the bubble bursts. Not that all Internet stocks are bad investments. The Perkinses figure that one in 20 will take off. But current stock prices only make sense if 20 out of 20 companies soar. The authors' prescription for investors is sobriety. As they lucidly explain the thinking of venture capitalists, investment bankers and analysts who shape the market for technology stocks, they demonstrate a thorough knowledge of the industry that makes their analysis extremely convincing. (Nov.) Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. See all Editorial Reviews</p>
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初读这本书的感受,是一种非常扎实的、如同在拆解一个复杂机械装置的过程。作者没有采用那种耸人听闻的“末日预言”式的写作手法,相反,他选择了一条更具学术性和说服力的路径——通过详实的数据和历史案例来构建论点。我特别留意了其中关于“网络效应”被过度神化的那几个章节。在很多新贵公司的宣传中,“网络效应”似乎成了万能的护身符,意味着只要用户基数够大,盈利能力自然会水到渠成。然而,这本书巧妙地揭示了,在缺乏清晰盈利路径的情况下,这种“效应”很容易沦为烧钱竞赛的遮羞布。我感觉自己仿佛坐在一个经验丰富的价值投资大师的身边,听他娓娓道来那些华尔街内部人士都知道,但普通散户却容易忽略的“游戏规则”。他对于早期风险投资阶段估值膨胀的剖析,让人不禁联想到历史上那些被浪漫化了的金融狂热期。读完之后,我开始重新审视那些动辄几十倍市销率的公司,它们的核心竞争力究竟在哪里?仅仅是用户体验的微小提升,是否真的能支撑起如此巨大的市场期望值?这本书像是一剂清醒剂,将那些关于“颠覆性创新”的过度热情,拉回到理性的财务报表和商业模式的现实检验之中。它教会我的,是慢下来,去质疑那些看起来太美好的故事。
评分这本书的书名本身就带着一种强烈的预警意味,让我这个一直对科技股市场保持警惕的投资者感到一丝共鸣。我记得自己是在一次关于投资组合再平衡的讨论中偶然发现它的,当时市场正处于一轮令人眼花缭乱的上涨周期,许多人都在鼓吹“这次不一样”的理论。这本书的出现,就像一股清流,试图将人们从对快速致富的迷梦中唤醒。它没有提供什么神奇的公式,而是回归到了商业的基本面——利润、现金流和可持续的增长模式。我尤其欣赏作者在分析那些看似光鲜亮丽的科技新贵时所展现出的那种冷静的、近乎批判性的审视角度。它迫使我重新审视自己过去的一些投资决策,那些基于“市场情绪”而非“内在价值”的买入,现在看来是多么的脆弱。那种深入到公司治理结构、估值模型被如何扭曲的细节描述,让我意识到,泡沫的形成往往不是一蹴而就的,而是由一系列看似合理的决策逐步累积而成的系统性风险。对于任何一个想在波涛汹涌的科技浪潮中保住本金的人来说,这本书提供了一种必要的“反向思维”工具包。它不是教你如何投机,而是教你如何抵御诱惑,保持清醒的头脑,这一点在如今这个信息爆炸、噪音过载的时代,显得尤为珍贵。这本书的价值不在于预测准确的时间点,而在于提供了一种长期的、基于价值的观察框架。
评分这本书给我最大的触动,在于它对“叙事性投资”的解构。在那个年代,似乎只要能编造出一个引人入胜的未来蓝图,资本就会蜂拥而至,对现实的不足视而不见。作者对这些“故事”的拆解,如同剥洋葱一般,一层层揭示出底层商业逻辑的空洞。我记得其中一段分析了某些门户网站的商业逻辑,仅仅是信息聚合,却被赋予了超越传统媒体和零售商的估值。这让我回想起自己年轻时对“未来已来”的盲目乐观。这本书的行文风格非常直接,没有太多拐弯抹角,直指问题核心,这对于已经被华丽的营销辞藻轰炸了太久的读者来说,是一种及时的解毒剂。它不是枯燥的经济学教科书,而是充满了对市场参与者心理活动的深刻洞察。那些关于“FOMO”(害怕错过)情绪如何驱动非理性交易的部分,读起来让人仿佛能看到自己过去的影子。我体会到,投资的难度不在于预测技术本身,而在于管理好自己内心的贪婪与恐惧。这本书通过回顾过去,为我们提供了一面镜子,让我们得以反思,在一个技术不断迭代的时代,哪些是永恒的商业真理,哪些仅仅是昙花一现的炒作热点。
评分我是在一个相对平静的市场环境下接触到这本书的,这让我能够更客观地评估其论点的有效性。它不像某些警示性的书籍那样,总是在市场山顶时才大声疾呼,而是提供了一种跨越牛熊周期的框架。这本书的结构安排非常严谨,从宏观环境的宽松信贷背景,逐步聚焦到微观层面的公司估值谬误,再到对监管和市场机制失灵的探讨,逻辑链条完整且具有说服力。其中关于期权和激励机制如何异化高管行为的部分,尤其值得深思。当管理层的激励与股东的长期利益脱钩时,短期的股价表现往往会被推到一个危险的高度。我被书中描述的那些高管如何通过精心设计的财务操作和市场沟通,将不可持续的增长神话延续下去的案例所震撼。这不仅仅是一本关于股票市场的书,更是一部关于群体心理学和金融腐败边缘的社会观察报告。它提醒我,在评估一家公司时,除了看其产品和技术,更要深入了解其内部的激励机制和文化导向,因为这些才是决定长期风险的关键因素。这本书的深度远超出了一个简单的“泡沫破裂”预言。
评分这本书的叙事节奏掌握得非常好,它不是那种一味强调“危机”的书,而更像是一份详尽的“使用说明书”,告诉你如何在科技狂热中安全航行。我欣赏作者在展示了泡沫的各个组成部分之后,并没有简单地给出“卖出所有股票”的建议,而是提供了一套基于防御性和保守主义原则的投资哲学。它强调了“理解你所投资的东西”的重要性,并深入探讨了技术创新与商业变现之间的巨大鸿沟。很多初创公司确实拥有惊人的技术潜力,但潜力并不等于盈利能力。书中对那些“赢家通吃”市场结构的剖析,让我认识到,即使是行业领导者,如果估值过高,也可能在市场信心转向时遭受重创。这本书的阅读体验是渐进式的,它不是提供一个快速答案,而是在你心中埋下质疑的种子。读完之后,我发现自己对那些铺天盖地的“颠覆者”新闻变得更加审慎,学会了将关注点从“故事的精彩程度”转移到“现金流的坚实程度”。对于任何一个希望在复杂多变的高科技投资领域长期生存下来的人来说,这本书提供了不可或缺的“反脆弱性”思考工具。
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